It could only happen in Italy. Romano Prodi’s government was toppled last Thursday by a confidence vote he knew he would lose yet called anyhow. It had long been a matter of when, not if, the Italian government would fall. Right from Day One, Prodi’s prospects were grim. How could he possibly expect to last long, running a country in need of urgent and wide-ranging reforms when he only had a majority of one in the Senate and ruled with a coalition of nine parties?
It would have been hard enough had the nine parties shared common values and come from the same political family, but it is hardly surprising that a marriage of convenience between communists, social democrats and conservative Christian democrats ended in acrimonious divorce.
Nor is it at all surprising that the fall should have been triggered by the withdrawal of one of the most unlikely members of this incongruous coalition: the small but conservative Christian Democrat party, Udeur. Nor should we be surprised that this withdrawal was triggered by a corruption probe. It was none other than the justice minister, Clemente Mastelle who, when told he was being investigated for corruption, decided to leave the government, taking with him the three seats held by Udeur in the Senate, thus wiping out Prodi’s one-seat majority.
Prodi could have resigned quietly but insisted on a confidence vote. He won the vote in the lower house, but lost in the Senate by 156 to 161. He sat serious and serene as chaotic scenes in the best Italian operatic tradition unfolded before him. There were even scuffles in the Senate. One Senator who changed his mind at the last minute and decided to support Prodi was insulted and spat on. Sen. Stefano Cusumano then fainted, was taken away on a stretcher but returned in time to vote. Earlier, Prodi had pleaded with the senators to avert this electoral crisis and give Italy a chance for continuity. “A power vacuum is a luxury that Italy cannot allow itself. The country needs more than ever to be governed.” And he is right.
But this was not the first time Prodi’s government had faced a confidence vote. Last February he had resigned after a crisis brought about by fractions within his coalition. The crunch had come when the far-left had refused to support his plans for the deployment of Italian troops in Afghanistan and over plans to extend a US airbase in Italian territory. Back then the Italian president, Giorgio Napolitano, had convinced him to stay on. Prodi faced his first confidence vote of his term and survived in both houses.
But not this time. Now Napolitano is faced with difficult choices. He could decide to call for an immediate election, or he could ask Prodi or another member of his party to form another coalition, or he could appoint an interim government headed by a technocrat. For now, Prodi stays on as caretaker prime minister while Napolitano consults with all the parties. The key issue will be the reform of the electoral system.
It is one of the bitter ironies of democratic systems that the more representative a voting system, the more unstable the government it creates. One of Berlusconi’s last actions as prime minister was the introduction of a system of proportional representation. This poisoned chalice is largely responsible for the center-left being forced into such an unwieldy coalition. It is a system guaranteed to produce governments with weak majorities and gives small parties like Udeur disproportionate power. Napolitano’s favored choice would be to reform the electoral system before calling an election, but he may have no choice but to call an early election.
Meanwhile, Berlusconi is celebrating. He has a comfortable lead in the polls and is campaigning vehemently for a snap election. He expects to be back in power within months. How depressing that Italians should once again be faced with the same choice. The people on the street express understandable frustration. Prodi’s 20 months in office have resulted in no tangible improvement. The Italian economy may have picked up a little, but it is still far from being a success story. Italian morale was hit in December when news broke that Spain now had a higher per capita income than Italy. Prodi may have refuted the claim but the mud stuck. Italians certainly feel that their real income is falling and that they are becoming relatively poorer year on year. Nor did the rubbish crisis in Naples help Prodi.
The result is that Italians have lost all confidence in their political leaders and their political system. This, after all, is the 61st Italian government since World War II. How could Italy possibly move forward if it remains mired in poor governance? It seems that whoever Italians vote for, nothing changes.
