In mid-January, President George Bush made a belated visit to seven states in the Middle East, concentrating on the Gulf states. It was a curious, and from the point of view of the United States, an unsatisfactory tour. The United States and the Arab Gulf states are on very different wavelengths in 2008.
It is a little odd that the president only agreed to this trip, when his second term in the White House is approaching its end in January 2009 — within twelve months. Attention in Western Europe and, no doubt, the Middle East has already switched to the search for his replacement.
Commentators know well that such is the current support in Washington for all things related to Israel, particularly among the neoconservatives who are still powerful in the Bush Administration if not elsewhere, that for the president to be seen making friends, or attempting to, among Arab leaders, is inclined to have a negative political charge back home.
Yet the unpleasant reality for Americans is that America relies on the Gulf States to an extent they do not wish to admit. America buys in huge quantities of oil from the Gulf for its heating and cooling systems, and for its hundreds of thousands of 4x4s. P Bush calls Iran the world’s top sponsor of terrorism and badly needs the friendship of the Arabs on the other side of the Gulf. This is particularly true in the case of Saudi Arabia, which has lost many lives in its internal conflict against terrorism, and which has a key position for the United States in the vital area of intelligence.
The president’s tour was a follow-up to that made to the Middle East last August by Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, and Robert Gates, the US defense secretary. Condoleezza Rice said then:
“We have the same goals in this region concerning security and stability. There isn’t a doubt that Iran constitutes the single most important, single-country challenge to ... US interests in the Middle East and to the kind of Middle East that we want to see.”
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran accused Bush of sending a “message of confrontation” during his visit, and claimed the president’s statements “increase the sentiment of resentment of the Iranian people against the US officials”. There is some truth in both criticisms. Bush’s central message was to call upon the Gulf states to stand up to the Islamic Republic, and your average Iranian will have found that unwelcome — even if he or she has little time for the Iranian president and his shocking economic mismanagement.
Arab States were, of course, diplomatic and polite toward their important visitor from the world’s only hyperpower. They appeared lukewarm to his appeal, while appreciating the Annapolis summit in December, which collected together the representatives of 44 countries, represented a more positive approach to Arab-Israel issues.
There is real tension across the Gulf and Arab States are most reluctant to add to it. The United States would like them to put financial pressure on Iran, but some States do good trade with Iran. Arab States with large Sunni majorities remain troubled by Ahmadinejad’s irrational behavior and over-the-top use of language.
Arab politicians can be forgiven for thinking that America is looking a little foolish over its strong verbal attacks against Iran’s nuclear policies. A few weeks ago, a major joint intelligence report in the United States suggested Iran had suspended its weapons development program five years ago and had not restarted it. Of course it could do so, as Bush pointed out on his trip, but that is a different matter. The nature of the debate has been transformed. As recently as Oct. 21, Vice President Dick Cheney had declared that there would be serious consequences if Iran did not halt the enrichment program. Did he not speak to the American intelligence community?
Arab States remain firmly opposed to any suggestion of a military engagement against Iran by the United States or Israel. They have good reason to be fearful that a misjudged incident at sea or in the air could lead to missiles being fired — such is the feeling of anger and aggression between Iranian and American forces. America has a vast naval presence off the Iranian coast containing two carrier groups. American fighters patrol close to Iranian airspace.
Arab States must be alarmed that the Americans are still not willing and able to resume diplomatic relations with Iran after all these years. American might is all around; where is American reconciliation?
The United States has promised the Gulf States $20 billion in arms. Congress may not agree. Israel has been offered a better package. The United States cannot get it right.
