Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia is imminent. It will probably happen on Feb. 4, the day after the runoff presidential elections in Serbia between Boris Tadic, the incumbent, and the archnationalist Tomislav Nikolic. It will almost certainly plunge the Balkans into fresh crisis. The question is how serious? Will a declaration of independence result in a declaration of war by Serbia?
Certainly it will if Nikolic wins. He is insane enough to believe the Russians will come to his aid and protect Serbia from an EU or NATO military response if he attacks Kosovo. The trouble is that no one can guarantee that Russia will not allow itself to be drawn into his machinations. It is in confrontational mode with the West and wants to show that it is not to be trifled with. If Serbia were threatened as a result of its own bellicose actions, Moscow might well send in troops to protect it and the Serbian enclaves in Kosovo.
If, on the other hand, Tadic wins, which fortunately appears more likely, there is still much to worry about. On Kosovo’s declaration of independence, either the Serbian-majority enclaves in the north and southeast will declare their own independence or there will be a massive flight by thousands of Serbs from the province, creating a major humanitarian crisis. Possibly both. Whatever, it is going to cause major problems for the EU which finds itself paralyzed about what to do. Most of its members — notably Germany, France and the UK — have made it clear that they will immediately recognize Kosovo’s independence. But plans to deploy an 1,800-strong EU task force in Kosovo to keep the Serbs and Albanians apart and ensure a degree of peace and stability there have come off the rails because of opposition from a minority of members, particularly Cyprus.
The EU is in a no-win situation. It still hopes to soften Serbian bitterness at the loss of Kosovo with promises of funding and Serbian EU membership in future. But the former will only enflame the bitterness with cries of Serbia being sold out while the latter cannot happen as long as there are suspicions that Belgrade protects war criminals from being sent to the war crimes court in The Hague. Meanwhile, without a EU force to replace the current UN one, there is little chance of avoiding the humanitarian crisis — which the EU will end up having to pay for in any event. That is not all. Belgrade has plans in hand to deal with an influx of refugees by resettling them in its remaining autonomous province, the Hungarian-majority Voivodina. That, however, will alter the demographic nature and spark a new crisis with Hungary which, as a member of the EU, will expect the EU to punish Serbia.
This diplomatic mess is no reason to delay Kosovo’s independence. The time is never going to be right as far as the Serbs are concerned; they will have to get used to it. But yet again, the EU, because of conflicting national interests, shows itself to be incapable of being decisive when it needs to be.
