Nine months after winning power, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has suffered a harsh reality check, his popularity ratings in freefall, the economy in difficulty and his political allies in disarray.
Government ministers have tried to shrug off the violent reversal in his fortunes as a momentary blip, but analysts say his slump could stretch on for months and persuade a chastened Sarkozy to tone down his reform program. Sarkozy’s ratings have plunged over the past four months, hitting just 39 percent in the latest IPSOS poll against 64 percent in September — a remarkably low level for a president so early in his five-year mandate. “There are no magical solutions for Sarkozy and I don’t think his popularity is going to change much in the months ahead,” said Jean-Francois Doridot, director general of IPSOS.
Pollsters say the drop in support is tied to frustration over the high cost of living and anger over Sarkozy’s glitzy private life, with his romance and marriage to pop star Carla Bruni defying expectations of how a president should behave. Perhaps stung by the opinion poll meltdown, Sarkozy appears to have put a brake on his celebrity antics and his very public canoodling with Bruni has stopped — at least for now.
Trying to fix problems tied to the economy will be tougher. Government hopes for economic growth of between 2.0-2.5 percent in 2007 and 2008 have already been dashed. Growth last year came in at 1.9 percent and many independent economists expect an even lower figure this year. This slippage will have a knock-on impact on job creation and the deficit, giving Sarkozy limited room for maneuver when it comes to finding cash to fund his reform plan, which was expected to include as many carrots as it did sticks.
“Given he is so unpopular, Sarkozy might decide he has nothing to lose and push ahead with reforms regardless,” said Jacques Marseille, an economics historian at Paris University. “However, the economic outlook isn’t good and the question now is what can the government do. I would like to see a real fiscal reform and reduction in public spending, but I’m afraid there is a real risk of immobility,” he added.
Sarkozy’s predecessor, Jacques Chirac, held back from reforms when the economy was weaker than expected in 2002, convinced he needed flush coffers to pay for change. By the time a turnaround materialized, it was too late for him to act.
Sarkozy was elected promising a “rupture” with the Chirac years and he has already introduced some reforms, such as ending generous pension rights enjoyed by mainly transport workers. But advisors agree that the toughest problems remain on the table, including a general pension reform, a liberalization of many protected areas of the economy, a much-needed reduction in state spending and a promised cut in company social charges.
Since taking office, Sarkozy has shown he is ready to throw cash at problems, for example offering compensation to fishermen protesting over fuel costs, and he had hoped to smooth the way for his future reforms with plenty of sweeteners for unions. But Eric Le Boucher, a columnist with Le Monde daily who sat on a recent commission tasked by Sarkozy to draw up key reforms, said the president would have to be much bolder if he wanted to achieve his goals in the current economic climate. “This policy would involve shrugging off his unpopularity, not looking for any return for 18 months and refusing to open the budgetary taps to smooth the reforms,” he said.
If Sarkozy is planning the sort of unpopular measures Le Boucher recommends, he will not reveal them ahead of next month’s municipal ballot, where his UMP party faces its first nationwide electoral test since a 2007 parliamentary poll.
The UMP is reeling from Sarkozy’s freefall and expecting a heavy defeat in the vote. Some candidates are refusing to use the UMP symbol, fearing it will cost them votes, while the party leadership is blaming murky forces for the president’s woes. “The most secret conservative forces must be very strong in France. They know that Nicolas Sarkozy wants rupture across the board and have decided to attack him,” UMP spokesman Yves Jego told Le Figaro daily at the weekend.
If Sarkozy is really intent on rupture, a great window of opportunity opens up after March, with no more elections due until the European parliamentary vote in 2009, giving him a clear field to ignore his ratings and get on with government. But some analysts question how easy it will be for the hyperactive president to regain his standing, and with it the authority needed to convince a traditionally recalcitrant France of the need for deep-rooted change.
“The positive things Sarkozy has done have been wrecked by the immaturity of his personality,” said Marseille, referring to his grandstanding tendencies in both private and public life. “The question is: Can he change his personality? It’s a question many women ask themselves when they marry a man and the answer is often ‘no’.”
