The 26-member states of NATO begin a two-day summit on Wednesday in the Romanian capital Bucharest. Top of the agenda will be the alliance’s involvement in Afghanistan. At the moment the one thing certain to come out of the meeting is a long-term “vision statement” on Afghanistan. This is hardly an adequate outcome as the Afghans face ever-greater challenges from Taleban insurgents and Al-Qaeda. The time for brave vision is long past. What is now wanted from the world’s premier military organization is action
Yet NATO is at odds with itself. There is an ugly split between members prepared to commit troops to fight and hold back the insurgency, principally the Americans, British Canadians and Dutch and other countries, notably France and Germany who are seen as not pulling their military weight, preferring to keep their small troop contingents patrolling peaceful areas or training the Afghan Army. The political argument is that the conflict in Afghanistan enjoys little domestic sympathy. Yet this is to ignore the commitment that all NATO countries willingly undertook in 2003, when they agreed to assume the UN mandate to provide peace and security in Afghanistan.
And even when it comes to training the Afghan Army, the NATO members who want to avoid battle are also failing. Afghan Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak yesterday warned that insufficient new troops were being trained. The armed forces currently number 50,000 and NATO says it is hoping another 20,000 would join the ranks by the end of this year. Yet this is far short of the Afghan assessment that there will need to be a properly trained and equipped army of up to 200,000 to be able to confront the insurgent Taleban. Wardak almost seemed to be trying to cajole recalcitrant NATO countries yesterday when he pointed out that the sooner Afghanistan had its own effective security forces, the sooner, NATO could disengage from his country.
There is perhaps a tone of desperation creeping into the Kabul government. It knows that when Western powers cut their support after 1990 ouster of the Soviet occupation forces, Afghanistan was plunged into civil war. It rightly fears the same outcome now. And the concern at being abandoned goes wider. Only $5 billion of the $12 billion of the originally promised international aid has so far been delivered. Governments have not fulfilled big promises. If ordinary Afghans see themselves betrayed economically as well as militarily, they will ultimately turn to the warlords, whose bitter feuds have for so long stymied the country’s stability and progress.
NATO could make a huge difference in Bucharest next week, but only if it backs noble words with strong and much-expanded action. NATO governments should not forget their past neglect allowed Afghanistan to become a heartland for international terror. The world, not just the Afghans, will pay the price if they fail again.
