Robert Mugabe, having ruled Zimbabwe with an iron fist for 28 years, has a handful of options if he really has lost weekend polls, including calling troops onto the streets or going into exile.
The opposition Movement for Democratic Change is convinced its leader Morgan Tsvangirai has beaten Mugabe and results from Saturday’s contest for president are being kept back while he cooks up a plan to stay in power.
The MDC is hopeful that Mugabe will concede defeat and retire, indicating he would not be pursued over alleged rights violations He might also try to cut a deal with his opponents to be given some form of honorary position in recognition of his role over so many decades.
A recent report by the International Crisis Group said: “A negotiated settlement need not necessarily remove Mugabe,” adding: “He might, for example, serve as a nonexecutive head of state during a transitional period until new elections can be held.” Mugabe could potentially go into exile, with his absence from public since casting his ballot on Saturday fueling speculation that he has already fled to a friendly country such as his regular port-call of Malaysia or Namibia.
However, long-time Mugabe watchers say his very nature precludes him pursuing such a meek exit strategy, leaving him with the possibility of either trying to rig the outcome or look to the army for survival.
Mugabe’s spokesman George Charamba has already hinted at sending troops onto the streets by saying any premature victory claim by Tsvangirai would be regarded as a coup, before adding: “We all know how coups are handled.” Army chiefs have so far remained loyal to Mugabe, with the chief of staff Constantine Chiwenga saying prior to the poll he would not salute anyone who had not fought in the country’s liberation war, a reference to Tsvangirai.
“The most sinister (option) is that he would declare the results to be null and void. This would place him in significant conflict with the opposition who would contest his decision,” said Pretoria-based analyst Chris Maroleng. “This would have a high degree of violence attached to it, and could see clashes” between the MDC and forces loyal to Mugabe.
However, Maroleng said such an option carried big risks as Mugabe was no longer guaranteed the loyalty of the armed forces. “He is receiving diminished support from the security sector who have been his main backers.” Several reports say Mugabe considered over the weekend imposing martial law as the opposition had pre-emptorily declared itself the winner. However, he was urged to hold back and allow the count to continue.
On the eve of the vote, state media ran a poll which gave Mugabe 57 percent of the votes against 27 percent for Tsvangirai in a move some analysts saw as paving the way for an eventual result at odds with opposition projections.
The exile option was alluded to by Mugabe last year when he acknowledged speculation about him fleeing to Malaysia, whose ex-Premier Mahathir Mohamad is an old ally. Former Ethiopian strongman Mengistu Haile Mariam has been living in Harare since being overthrown in 1991.
In a speech in Harare last August, Mugabe stressed: “I was born, here I grew up and here I will be buried.” But John Makumbe, an analyst at the University of Zimbabwe, said exile was most likely scenario. “What I think he’s trying to do is to negotiate the issue of retribution or whether he will be allowed to stay here, but I don’t see him living in this country for too long because of crimes against humanity,” Makumbe told AFP.
Tsvangirai, himself assaulted by the security forces last year, has indicated he has no desire for vengeance. “If Mugabe would accept the results peacefully and say: ‘Look thank you very much I accept the results ... I think a lot of people would say: ‘Let’s let bygones be bygones’,” he told Britain’s Observer newspaper recently.
However, Heidi Holland, granted a rare interview recently with Mugabe for a new psychological profile, said he would never voluntarily give up office. “I am sure emotionally he is quite incapable of admitting defeat,” she told AFP. “He has built himself up into a world where he can only be right, he can’t be wrong.
“His traditional response to disillusionment or rejection is revenge, that you can see throughout his career. I don’t know who would be able to persuade him he should accept defeat.”
