WASHINGTON, 7 May 2008 — Another Tuesday and two more states held primaries. This time the outcome could be crucial to the Democratic presidential nomination battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
Their slugfest continued as voters in both states reported long lines at voting booths amid a swirl of polls that largely predict a split decision and a prolonged battle for the nomination. In all, 187 delegates are at stake in Indiana and North Carolina.
Both campaigns see the two states as highly competitive, as evidenced by the amount of time Clinton and Obama have spent there in recent days.
If Obama loses in Indiana because of white blue-collar support for Clinton it would be the third time in a row, after Ohio and Pennsylvania, that he has lost a big state because of an inability to win over enough of those kind of voters.
While most polls out yesterday showed Clinton leading in Indiana, the latest Zogby poll has Obama squeaking out a win in the Hoosier state and winning by a wider margin in North Carolina.
Judging by the numbers, Obama is still the front-runner. The Illinois senator leads in pledged delegates and in states won, and is also ahead in the popular vote, if Florida and Michigan are not factored into the equation. Those states are being penalized for moving their primaries up in violation of party rules.
If Obama wins North Carolina and Indiana — even by a slim margin — he gains momentum that will lock in uncommitted superdelegates — the party leaders and elected officials who hold the critical balance of votes.
Twin wins will deny Clinton the ability to raise money off a victory as she did in Pennsylvania and leaves no big state left for another comeback.
The status quo helps Obama because he has been steadily picking up superdelegates and just needs to get past the last primary on June 3.
And if Clinton wins both, the math is still in Obama’s favor — and superdelegates will have an even more important role in picking the winner.
Clinton’s campaign signaled yesterday that it thinks the battle with Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination will continue well beyond the last primary, in Puerto Rico on June 3.
But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told reporters that the two candidates will have “days, not weeks” to make their case to the party superdelegates. “I think it will end pretty soon” after the last primary, he said.
So Clinton has a lot on the line.
“It will be a game changer if Clinton wins both North Carolina and Indiana by double-digit margins,” said Bill Schneider, a CNN political correspondent. “That would signal to the superdelegates that Democratic voters are having serious doubts about Obama. She needs big victories because it’s so late in the game.”
In short, a Clinton win will place more doubt in the minds of party officials wondering if Obama can carry the working-class vote in November. An Obama win would most likely seal the nomination for him.
Her recent campaign tactics are what many describe as a shameless populist pitch by Clinton to seal the vote in Indiana, a state hit hard by the loss of manufacturing jobs.
Her message has been part of her extreme makeover. She and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, are said to have a net worth of more than $100 million but she has recently managed to portray herself as the working-class hero to some effect.
Last year, she appeared on the cover of Fortune magazine under the heading “Why Business Loves Hillary” but now she’s pitching to blue-collar voters by slamming Wall Street and lamenting how the working class “don’t want the game rigged against us.”
In all, only 404 pledged delegates remain to be chosen, and yesterday’s total of 187 makes it the biggest single primary day left. Clinton would need to win 70 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to catch up with Obama.
