Is it possible that a man born of a Kenyan father, whose skin is a dark shade of caramel, whose middle name is Hussein and whose surname rhymes with the first name of the world’s most wanted terrorist, whose mother was named Stanley and who married not one but two non-American men, whose stepfather was a Muslim and who, what is more, has been a senator for less than four years, is it really possible that such a man could become the 44th president of the United States of America? Theoretically at least the answer is yes, and yet, for many of us who only know the US through a foreign lens, it seems not just unlikely but counterintuitive.
Barack Obama’s candidature may be at one with the American Dream, but it is a straight contradiction of the image of the US abroad. Quite frankly it seems hard to believe that the flag-waving, nationalistic, insular, conservative (at least by European standards) populace who voted in two terms of George W. Bush could vote for a man who on the surface represents everything that the current president is not. Of course Bush is a Republican while Obama is a Democrat and most of those who voted for Bush will vote Republican no matter what, while most of those who voted for Al Gore last time are likely to vote along party lines too. Or will they? This has been one of the most interesting aspects of the campaign for the Democratic nomination, the argument put forward by Hillary Clinton’s camp that those who voted for her would not vote for Obama in a general election and that the reason for this is quite simply his skin color.
I have always found swing voters fascinating. While many of the people who talk passionately about politics have clear and generally unwavering allegiance to a particular political camp, the voters who effectively put governments in power are those who are swayed not by a deep belief in ideology but by the promises and personalities of the candidates they have before them on the ballot paper. And to make a sweeping generalization, the kind of person they like to vote for is someone whose persona is convincing and whose policies make them materially better off. In other words, someone who looks like their perception of what a president should look like and who can convince them he or she will look after their best interests in terms of security, wealth, education and healthcare, often in that order.
I could more easily understand Hillary Clinton’s argument if she was saying that swing voters in a general election would be more likely to vote for her than for Obama, but that is only part of the argument. What is actually being said is that EVEN among card-carrying Democrats, there is a sizable contingent who would vote for the candidate of the other party or not vote at all rather than vote for an African American.
And that is another thing which intrigues me, the way a man whose mother is white and whose father is black is automatically categorized as black, at least by whites. What would he be if he had three white grandparents and one black grandparent, I wonder? Also African American I suspect. Historically that was certainly the case, just one non-white ancestor was enough to categorize you as non-white too, with all the consequences it entailed. This view of being white as some kind of pure breed is offensive and brings to mind the certificates that come with pedigree dogs whereby the owner can be assured that all the ancestors of their new pet were indeed of the same breed. Besides I have long found categorization based on race offensive in its own right. Whenever I have to tick such a box on a questionnaire I am tempted to tick on “other” and write “human”.
Technically, if you must insist on these kinds of categorizations, Barack Obama is of mixed race, or Metisse as the French have christened those born of parents of different skin colors. Moreover he was brought up by his mother and his maternal grandmother — both white. It’s little wonder that some African Americans questioned his African American identity and wondered whether someone who was not descended from slavery could accurately reflect their identity. Though he has now won the popular African American vote, many were at first keener to vote for Hillary Clinton rather than for a man they did not quite see as one of them.
And here is another question: Had Barack Obama not been head to head with a woman for the Democratic nomination would he have won? Given it was not initially a two-horse race perhaps the question is not so pertinent, but still, it is worth asking. The candidates may have held fiery and informed debates and argued about foreign policy and other political issues but the critical, decisive question of the campaign was: “Who would be more likely to win the presidency between a white woman and a black man?”
So now that Obama is up against another man and that he is campaigning for the votes of all Americans and not just those of his own party, what are his chances?
If the rest of the world were voting, he would probably win hands down. He is so much more of an attractive prospect than John McCain, not just because he is young and eloquent, but because he holds a world view that is far more empathic toward foreigners. There has also been much talk about him being the more pro-Arab of the candidates but I think that is an error. If anything, the opposite is more likely to be true. Wanting a phased withdrawal of troops from Iraq and wanting to talk to Iran do not somehow make him pro-Arab, they just show him to be more open to diplomatic resolutions to conflicts and more averse to direct military intervention than Bush. President Obama, I suspect, will be as fervently pro-Israel as his predecessor, partly because it is a given of how American foreign policy functions and partly because he needs to be seen to be supportive of Israel to win the sizable Jewish vote which currently eludes him.
Sadly we non-Americans don’t get to vote in November. Obama’s fate will quite naturally be decided by the citizens of his own country. If they do vote him into power, it might or might not lead to a change in the way America is run, but it will certainly change the way most of us see the US.
