The pedestrianized mall in Menderes Cıkmazı street in the Istanbul suburb of Gungoren is a less plush imitation of similar malls in the far more prosperous areas of Turkey's commercial capital. That is because Gungoren's inhabitants are largely poor working class. Judging by the names of some of the dead and injured, they also included Kurds. Istanbul's rapid growth in the last 20 years has been largely driven by Kurds fleeing the war-torn east of the country.
Someone who can plant two bombs, the first as a lure and the second nearby, packed with shrapnel timed to explode ten minutes later, wreaking indiscriminate death and injury around them is not, of course, by definition, capable of humanity. And the PKK has shown itself inhumane and merciless. But unless they were trying to spook moderate Kurds into a fearful reaction, it is quite hard to see why Kurdish terrorists should have struck at this poor suburb.
It is easy, however, to see why the authorities should have been so quick to blame the PKK for the outrage. One official source has claimed the plastic explosive used Sunday was the same as in a suicide attack last year for which the PKK, unlike last weekend, was prepared to claim responsibility.
Nor is it likely that this was the work of Al-Qaeda supporters. Outside of their undiscriminating butchery in Iraq, they have preferred spectacular attacks against high-profile targets such as the 2005 bombings of Istanbul's British Consulate, a British bank and two synagogues. There was nothing high profile about the residents of Gungoren as they enjoyed a warm Sunday evening.
There is a third and arguably more plausible suspect for this savagery. Ergenekon - named after the valley where a mythic Turkish hero rallied Turks to escape from the Mongols - is an ultranationalist secret society, 80 of whose alleged members, including two retired army officers, have recently been arrested on suspicion of planning to launch a terror campaign to bring down the government. There are some analysts who wonder if Sunday's bombings were not carried out by surviving Ergenekon elements. The professionalism of the attack was particularly heinous. The second deadly blast was designed to catch those decent people who, far from fleeing with the majority of people in the mall, had rushed to the scene of the first mild explosion to deal with the shocked and injured. All the deaths and most of the maiming were caused minutes later by the second detonation.
The Erdogan government in Ankara, itself under attack in the courts because of its moderate Islamic principles, must beware of adding to the feeling of insecurity by rushing to hasty judgments. While there is no reason to believe the PKK when it denies responsibility, there are clearly other suspects for this despicable crime. Thirty years ago Turkey was brought to the edge of disaster by right- and left-wing terror feeding on a climate of suspicion and fear. A calm and cautious official response can contain a repeat of the 1970s. Turks should have nothing to fear save fear itself.
