WASHINGTON: In less than two weeks, the US will elect a new president that will inherit a slew of problems, both domestic and international.
Beaten down by housing, credit and financial crises, the bruised US economy is likely to drag into next year, leaving more people out of work and more businesses wary of making big investments.
Meanwhile, the last eight years of America’s foreign-policy “stewardship” has sullied its reputation worldwide. In nation after nation, changes in US leadership or policy have turned friendly or neutral nations into hostile or dangerous adversaries waiting to take on the next president.
In fact, it’s hard to find any nation that arguably has stronger, friendlier relations with Washington than — no, not Iraq or Afghanistan — but India.
In 2001, India remained a pariah because of its clandestine nuclear-weapons program. But then, three years ago, the Bush Administration offered to help India with its civilian nuclear program, while allowing it to retain nuclear weapons. That undeniably helped relations between the two countries.
In many other countries, however, the record is not so reassuring. In this hemisphere, Nicaraguan voters rejected a pro-Washington incumbent party and elected as President Daniel Ortega, the former Sandinista leader who despises the US. Ortega then allied himself with Venezuela and then Iran. In 2002, US endorsed a coup in Venezuela that briefly removed Hugo Chavez from office. Since then, relations have worsened.
Relations with Russia headed south ever since President Bush began campaigning for a European missile-defense system only days after taking office. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is a Russian specialist, but under her watch Russia’s invasion of Georgia et off talk of a new Cold War.
In Asia, the Clinton Administration pushed during its final weeks in office to normalize relations with North Korea. But they could not complete the deal before the clock ran out. The Bush Administration did not follow up because Bush and his aides believed that if they sidelined North Korea, the government would collapse. Instead North Korea has threatened to jumpstart it nuclear weapons arsenal.
The administration’s steadfast support for Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani military ruler, long after his popular support had vanished, helped turn a nation disinclined to like the United States into a population filled with anger — which many regional observers say made many in the country ally themselves with the Taleban and Al-Qaeda in Pakistan.
The occupation of Iraq emboldened Iran’s hard-liners and helped elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad president, the most anti-US leader since Ayatollah Khomeini. Regarding the Middle East, beyond the difficulties of Iraq and Afghanistan, experts believe that the global financial crisis will knock the Arab-Israeli conflict down on the new administration’s priority list. Neither Obama nor McCain has specified how they would reinvigorate the peace process, although both candidates have promised to continue the elusive search for Middle East peace.
The deadline set by the Bush Administration for an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord by the end of this year is widely considered to be unachievable. So the next president will have to decide whether to extend the negotiating framework set up by Bush last year, try something new, or put the process on the back burner.
“Time is running out. Things are getting worse. We’ve got to do something about the Arab-Israeli conflict,” Steven Cook, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations recently told reporters, then added: “Why would he (the next president) want to get involved with something so hopeless?”
The two candidates have differing views of e regional consequences of not resolving the conflict. And, even before the new president tries to bring the Israelis and Palestinians to the peace table, he may have to address another problematic rift, that of the Hamas and Palestinian Authority’s President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah party.
The Bush Administration pushed for Palestinian elections; even as Middle East experts warned that the Palestinians were not ready. That brought Hamas to power and created the irresolvable stalemate now blocking any effort to negotiate peace.
Regarding Syria - Dennis Ross, a former Middle East envoy for the Clinton and first Bush Administrations and who now advises the Obama campaign, said Obama as president would reach out to Syrian but only after preparation - similar to Obama’s policy on Iran.
McCain’s Middle East talking points say he opposes “unconditional” talks with Syria, a harder line than the current Israeli Administration.
