India and Pakistan are on a knife-edge again. As feared by many of us, the Mumbai terror attacks not only threaten the peace process but have set the nuclear-armed neighbors on a dangerous collision course. Which is a shame after years of painstaking efforts by the two countries to build peace in the face of heavy odds.
Last week, writing in these columns, this writer had excitedly welcomed President Zardari’s overtures to India at the Hindustan Times summit in New Delhi. Who knew then that at that moment, some faceless men out there were preparing to attack Mumbai! And now they’ve got India and Pakistan where they wanted them — in a jaw-jaw all over again. Understandably, India is livid with rage. The Manmohan Singh government faces public outrage over the shocking intelligence failure and the inability of security agencies to pre-empt the attacks targeting India’s landmarks in a high security zone.
How the militants managed to breach India’s closely monitored coastline to enter those glitzy hotels with all those high-tech arms and ammunition is a question that still baffles top security minds. Doubtless, this is as bad as it gets for the government in Delhi as well as in Maharashtra. No wonder the Mumbai attacks have been followed by unprecedented protests across India. This couldn’t have come at a more inappropriate time for the Congress party that is in power both in Delhi and Mumbai. And no one should be surprised if this translates itself into a decisive vote against the party in the general election that’s less than five months away. In its desperation this government could take some really desperate measures. The country has been put on a war-level security alert. There’s also talk of ending the cease-fire with Pakistan and deploying the army along the western border.
The mood has changed across the border in Pakistan too. There have been strong demonstrations against “conspiracies” to link Pakistan to Mumbai attacks. Many in Pakistan, including the authorities, suspect that groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba could be behind the attacks — with Al-Qaeda’s blessings. The Mumbai attacks are sinisterly similar to those Pakistan itself has witnessed in recent times, from the attack on Benazir Bhutto’s homecoming rally to the recent Marriott bombing in Islamabad. But the focus right now is on presenting a united front against what they fear could be a US-like response from India. The Indian media’s keenness to draw parallels between 9/11 and Mumbai attacks hasn’t helped the neighborly relations either. An all-party meeting on Tuesday offered the government all the support it needs to “deal with India”.
With the media and politicians on both sides turning hysterical, there’s enough hot air out there to melt all the ice on the Himalayas. This is sad. The terrorists may not have succeeded in blowing up the majestic Taj Mahal hotel but they have certainly managed to sabotage the India-Pakistan ties. The past few years have been the best in South Asia. The people-to-people contacts have never been so good with Indian and Pakistani artistes, filmmakers and sportsmen increasingly joining hands in great creative and cultural encounters. Groups like Lashkar, whose very raison d’etre is Kashmir, have watched with alarm that with improved Indo-Pak relations, the Kashmir cause has receded into the background.
With India insisting on “confidence-building measures” before talking Kashmir and Musharraf joining the US war, the issue that had long been the single-most source of friction between the neighbors was finally consigned to the dustbin of history.
The present government gave Pakistan’s historical Kashmir policy a decent burial with Zardari describing the Kashmiri separatists as “terrorists”. This is why it may be unfair to blame the current Pak leadership for the Mumbai tragedy.
In fact, Pakistan is not exaggerating when it claims Pakistan is as much a victim of terror as India is. Pakistan’s 100,000 troops have been fighting an endless war along the border with Afghanistan. Zardari has lost his own wife to this war, not to mention the thousands of innocents who have paid with their lives for the US war that in turn was an outcome of historical injustices by big powers. Many Western security analysts believe the Mumbai attacks could have also been aimed at the US policy in the region. Bhanu Pratap Mehta of the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi told the Times of London: “This attack was not just an attempt to scuttle India’s peace process with Pakistan. It was in many ways a pre-emptive strike against Obama’s strategy for the region.” The incoming US president has suggested appointing a special envoy to help resolve Pakistan’s Kashmir business with India. An India-Pakistan conflict could scupper all those grand plans.
If India turns the heat on Pakistan, Islamabad will most certainly move its troops from the western front to the border with India. It would take the army off the militants’ back. Also, with the Indo-Pak front heating up, Kashmir would be back on the table. Which is what militants are trying to achieve with the Mumbai-like attacks.
So what India and Pakistan face today is a shared threat. They are in this together. Today, more than ever, they need to keep peace and the hopes and aspirations of their billion plus people alive. For its part, India must avoid taking the road Bush’s America took after the Sept. 11. If the country is respected today it’s because of its steadfast commitment to democratic ideals and traditions of tolerance despite some aberrations. This is india’s strength and this is what has sustained it all these years.
If we are to avoid more tragedies like Mumbai, India and Pakistan need to join hands and fight this monster together. They must be allies, not enemies, in this war.
