WASHINGTON: There has been no national security issue that has preoccupied the presidency of George W. Bush more than the threat of weapons of mass destruction falling into the hands of terrorists.
But on Wednesday, a congressionally-mandated bipartisan commission delivered a sobering report to the White House concluding that the threat is greater than ever - warning that a biological or nuclear attack is likely someplace in the world within five years.
The report, entitled: 'The World at Risk,' starkly states, "The commission believes that unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013."
The report notes: "The next administration must work to openly and honestly engage the American citizen, encouraging a participatory approach to meeting the challenges of the new century."
It asserts that "America's margin of safety is shrinking," and notes that terrorists are more likely to obtain and use a biological weapon than a nuclear weapon.
It singles out Pakistan as the weakest link in world security.
"Were one to map terrorism and weapons of mass destruction today, all roads would intersect in Pakistan," the report says. It was prepared by the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism.
It also prominently criticizes Iran: "Iran continues to defy its NPT (nuclear non-proliferation treaty) obligations, UN Security Council resolutions, and the international community in an apparent effort to acquire a nuclear weapons capability. It has 3,850 centrifuges spinning and more than 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium - three-quarters of what would be needed, after further enrichment, to build its first bomb."
The report notes in its appendix: "Only India, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan are not members of the NPT."
It reinforces Israel's so-called strategic ambiguity with regard to its nuclear weapons arsenal: "Since the United States exploded the first nuclear bomb in 1945, seven additional states are known or suspected to have joined the nuclear weapons club: Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, Israel, India, and Pakistan."
It also maintains a positive view of the US-India nuclear deal: "US-Indian cooperation in the civilian nuclear power industry must not be allowed to become the catalyst of a nuclear arms race in Asia."
The report recommends that the president designate a White House principal adviser for WMD proliferation and terrorism.
"We recommended two different options," said former Rep. Tim Roemer of Indiana, a member of the commission issuing the report. "One could be a deputy in the national security council, working directly with the president of the United States. And the second would be putting the vice president in charge and having it run with his leadership and his expertise."
Roemer, a member of the 9-11 Commission and adviser to President-elect Barack Obama's campaign, said during an interview that he believes the Obama Administration will act on the recommendation "fairly quickly."
The recent report left some national security experts questioning what, if anything, a government plan to station 15,000 military troops inside the United States might do to counteract a domestic catastrophe.
The bipartisan commission appointed by Congress warns the incoming Obama administration that it must not rule out the use of "direct force" - military action - against Iran and North Korea, if diplomatic negotiations fail to stop their nuclear weapons programs.
At a news conference Wednesday, journalists asked the commission's chairman, former Sen. Bob Graham, D-Florida, if the panel was recommending that the U.S. take "military action" against Iran and North Korea, if negotiations and other tactics fail.
"We cannot omit from our range of options the use of direct force if other means are unsuccessful," Graham said.
The commission was explicit in its language.
"In the case of Iran, this requires the permanent cessation of all of Iran's nuclear weapons-related efforts," the commissioners wrote. "In the case of North Korea, this requires the complete abandonment and dismantlement of all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs."
The bipartisan panel of former congressmen and experts warned President-elect Obama, however, in no uncertain terms:
"If, as appears likely, the next administration seeks to stop these programs through direct diplomatic engagement with the Iranian and North Korean governments, it must do so from a position of strength, emphasizing both the benefits to them of abandoning their nuclear weapons programs and the enormous costs of failing to do so," the authors wrote. "Such engagement must be backed by the credible threat of direct action in the event that diplomacy fails."
Not everyone agrees with the report. Joseph Gerson, director of programs for the American Friends Service Committee in New England and author of "Empire and the Bomb: How the US Uses Nuclear Weapons to Dominate the World," told reporters:
"I don't think anyone can predict with any precision when a WMD terror attack might take place in the US The more important question is to ask why the US is seen as, or we think of ourselves as, a target for terrorist attack.
"Given the history of US military hegemony - including invasions, subversion of governments, alliances with repressive monarchies and dictatorship, and invasions - to enforce US privileged access to the oil of the Middle East and a number of other nations, we have angered many people whose lives have been diminished or lost as a consequence. It isn't surprising that people want revenge. Look at how many people in the US responded after 9/11."
