WHILE Greece continues to be hit by protests aimed at bringing down the government, Thailand has moved back from the brink — although for how long is anyone’s guess. The vote in the Thai Parliament to appoint the country’s opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as prime minister could bring an end to months of political stalemate resulting from the mass protests against the government of Somchai Wongsawat, who was accused of being a front for his brother-in-law, disgraced former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Thailand certainly needs stability. The crisis has hit the Thai economy, particularly tourism, when it can least afford it, with the international downturn beginning to bite. Moreover, the British-born Abhisit is young (the youngest prime minister Thailand has ever had), charismatic, bright, articulate, untainted by corruption and a man who should be able to reach out to all sides. Although opposed to Thaksin, he also opposed the military coup that overthrew him in 2006. In other circumstances, he would have little problem providing a steady and much appreciated hand at the tiller. But these are anything but normal times. Simply trying to restore confidence in the economy will be difficult enough; confidence in anything has become a rare commodity. In any event, Abhisit may find the carpet pulled up from under his feet in a matter of weeks. He faces two major challenges — from the street, as enraged Thaksin loyalists are transformed from government supporters into the new protesters and from the ballot box as parliamentary by-elections take place in seats held by Thaksin supporters banned from politics by the court ruling. The seats likely to be won by other Thaksin loyalists. The new prime minister could find himself ousted in a vote of no confidence.
If that happens, and a party allied to Thaksin is put back in power, the protesters will return and Thailand will be in even worse trouble than has been the case. The threat of lasting economic damage will not deter them, as it has not the Greek protesters.
There is a link between the two crises. Both may seem to be an example of People Power, as seen in Lebanon, Ukraine, Serbia and Georgia. But it is an illusion. In the case of Greece, the protesters want to forcibly remove a government democratically elected just over a year ago. Whether it would win an election now is open to question, but for very practical purposes it is fundamental part of representative democracy that fresh elections are not held every time a government becomes unpopular. There are times governments have to make difficult decisions. Their job is to govern. It is not simply to be popular.
In the case of Thailand, the protesters from the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) who have effectively won their battle to bring down the Somchai government have even less democratic credentials.
Despite their name and perhaps their best intentions, democracy takes second place to their anti-Thaksin stand. For example, they want a partly-appointed Parliament. That is because it is the populist Thaksin, not them, who draws the greater public support across the country, particularly from the poorer countryside. For the PAD, his perceived republican agenda, with himself as head of state, and his populist stance are the immediate threat.
Unlike them, Thailand’s new prime minister is a fully committed democrat. Despite his many talents, however, it remains to be seen whether he can take the heat out of the country’s steaming political cauldron. His appointment may be no more an interlude before an even more serious constitutional struggle is unleashed.
