CHINA is the latest country planning to send its navy to the Gulf of Aden to protect shipping from Somali pirates. The announcement follows the arrival of Iranian warships at the beginning of the week equally intent on protecting its ships in the pirate-infested waters and the launch, a few days earlier, of an EU joint naval operation there, its first ever.
Even landlocked Switzerland, not exactly known as a naval nation, wants to play a part; it has offered troops to guard ships off Somalia. Action is vital; with more than 100 vessels attacked this year and 40 seized, including the still-held Saudi crude tanker Sirius Star, the world cannot sit idly by while one of its most vital maritime trade routes is under such threat.
Impressive though this display of unanimity and naval prowess is, it is questionable whether it will work. According to the UN agency UNOSAT, which analyzes satellite information, there is no evidence that the increased naval presence has deterred the pirates who have simply directed their activities elsewhere.
There will not be an end to Somali piracy until law and order are re-established in Somalia. That is not going to happen until there is effective government there — and that is looking even more remote than ever. If anything, Somalia is on the threshold of a new power vacuum. The internationally recognized government, whose authority is limited to parts of the capital and the town of Baidoa, is at daggers drawn with itself following the sacking of Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein by President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed and Nur’s refusal to go. Meanwhile, Ethiopian troops who are the only force between it and military defeat at the hands of resurgent militants are on the verge of pulling out.
It is impossible to hold any great hope for the country’s immediate future. The African Union may well come up with a multinational force to replace the 3,000 Ethiopians who leave by the end of the year. But no one should hold their breath. It is one thing to promise help; quite another to deliver it. In Sudan’s troubled Darfur province, of the 26,000 peacekeepers promised a year-and-a-half ago by 38 countries, less than half have arrived and they are so woefully underfunded that they do not have the arms or the equipment to do the job. The situation is much the same in DRCongo where the presence of the UN’s largest peacekeeping force — 17,000 troops and another 3,000 approved by the UN last month — has failed to protect civilians in the war-torn east of the country. At least in the case of Congo, there is a coherent and internationally recognized government that can exert its authority in much of the country. In the case of Somalia, not only are there now two prime ministers — Nur (supported by the Somali Parliament) and Mohamed Mohamud Guled (the new man appointed by President Abdullahi). It is not clear if the president is accepted internationally any more. Neighboring African states have condemned his sacking of Nur and imposed sanctions on him.
Somalia has been a mess, without effective government, since 1991. But today the situation is the worst ever. What chance then that the lawlessness which allows piracy to flourish will end? None. That is cause for even greater concern. A week ago, the UN authorized the use of land and air attacks against suspected pirate bases in Somalia; any country that feels so inclined can do so. It will happen; naval cover, no matter how many ships, how many nations are involved, will not stop the pirates. There is too much money involved. However, an attack by anyone — Americans, Russians, Chinese, EU or a joint international operation — is bound to increase a Somali sense of victimhood. That will add fuel to the Somali fire.
