China is the only low-key voice in the international outcry over North Korea’s planned rocket launch and is likely to stay that way, putting the stability of the reclusive state ahead of any retaliatory sanctions.
The United States, South Korea and Japan have sounded alarm at the impending launch, which they say is a long-range missile test in all but name. Even Russia last week urged Pyongyang to abandon plans to fire the rocket some time from April 4 to 8.
But China, the closest North Korea has to a major ally and economic partner, has kept above this fray. While Beijing may use its growing clout to influence global events, here it is using that weight to sit unmoved despite the push against a launch.
For China, what matters is the stability of North Korea given the nightmare scenario of refugees flooding across its border if the impoverished state collapsed.
“They clearly would be much happier if the launch didn’t happen,” Peter Beck, a North Korea expert at the American University in Washington D.C., said of China.
“But they’re clearly not going to get tough with North Korea and cut off their lifeline ... The bottom-line, I think, is that short of starting a war, they won’t abandon North Korea.” While other countries single out North Korea for pressure, Chinese diplomats have repeatedly urged all sides to show “calm and restraint” and said the rocket will carry a communications satellite, which is how Pyongyang describes it.
China calculates that its display of detachment will minimize damage to stalled negotiations seeking to persuade North Korea to abandon nuclear weapons, and help preserve China’s stake in North Korea’s survival, said several Chinese analysts.
“China’s main worry is that over-reacting now serves nobody’s interests,” said Zhu Feng, a regional security expert at Peking University. “North Korea has a history of seeking to provoke international reactions, and this time is the same. A big reaction reward North Korea and benefits no one else.” Beijing does not want to be cornered into backing a new UN resolution against Pyongyang, or be treated as a custodian responsible for North Korean behavior, added Cai Jian, an expert on North Korea at Fudan University in Shanghai.
“I think Beijing will maybe express regret at a launch and urge all sides to exercise restraint,” he said. “But there’s no sign that China is prepared to accept stronger measures or condemnation beyond the current (UN) resolutions.” China is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and has the power to veto proposed resolutions. It backed a 2006 resolution that other governments say bans such launches by the North. Beijing has refused to say openly whether it agrees.
That mild stance contrasts with October 2006, when it denounced as “brazen” North Korea’s first and only test explosion of a nuclear device — an act that defied public warnings from Beijing’s image-sensitive leaders.
This time North Korea appears to have briefed China on its broad intentions, telling officials it will not let tensions boil into a major crisis, said a Beijing observer familiar with the issue. The observer requested anonymity, citing official sensitivity about relations.
The two neighbors have had opportunities to exchange views at a high level. The head of the Chinese Communist Party’s International Department, Wang Jiarui, visited Pyongyang in January and met supreme leader Kim Jong-il. North Korean Premier Kim Yong-il visited China in mid-March.
