Behind the talk of how to win the war in Afghanistan is a question which will affect the global economy for years to come: Who will win the peace? Though it may seem premature given a growing insurgency in Afghanistan which is also spreading deep into Pakistan, each country’s calculations about who will come out on top will affect their response to the US strategy in Central Asia.
Analysts say China could benefit most from any settlement in Afghanistan which opened up trade routes and improved its access to oil, gas and mineral resources in Central Asia and beyond. Other countries all have a much harder hand to play.
Russia and Iran would dearly like to see an end to the US military presence in their backyard. But they would also lose leverage over energy supplies if peace brought a diversification of pipelines and land routes through Afghanistan. And India and Pakistan will struggle to address the tough compromises needed to soften a 60-year-old rivalry that has spilled over into a competition for influence in Afghanistan.
“China is keeping its head under the parapet,” said retired Indian diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar. But he added, “China is probably in my estimation the No. 1 gainer.” While other countries have fretted about geopolitical rivalries, China has focused on its economic interests.
Its largest copper producer, Jiangxi Copper, is developing the vast Aynak copper mine south of Kabul, while it is also building Gwadar port on Pakistan’s Arabian Sea coast to give it access to the Gulf. China’s Deputy Foreign Minister Wu Dawei said this week that Beijing would continue to encourage Chinese enterprises to take part in Afghan reconstruction, according to Xinhua news agency. Politically, China is keeping a low profile, although Wu said it favored a strong role for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a grouping of Central Asian states dominated by Beijing and Moscow used to counterbalance Western influence.
But unlike the other regional players, and indeed the United States — which have to find their way through a minefield of competing interests — China’s course is simpler.
Barring a huge upsurge in militancy that spilled into its Muslim Xinjiang region, an escalation big enough to destroy the US economy and China’s dollar holdings, or an invasion of its ally Pakistan, it can keep its head down.
Washington, by contrast, faces much tougher choices. It has never been able to shake off suspicion in the region that its interest in Central Asia is as much in the pursuit of oil and gas resources as in targeting Al-Qaeda.
If it is to win support from Russia, Iran and China for a new strategy outlined by President Barack Obama, it has to show it has an exit plan that will eventually remove US troops. In doing so, it may not lose the war, but nor will it win the peace.
Russia could emerge a winner if it can exploit the US need for alternative supply routes to Pakistan into Afghanistan in exchange for an end to NATO expansion in Central Asia.
It already scored a minor victory by prodding Kyrgyzstan to close Manas air base — the only US air base in Central Asia — while offering to open up its own territory for ground supplies into Afghanistan, thereby increasing its leverage.
But Russia faces bigger risks than China from either war or peace. A US defeat that revitalized the Islamists would spread instability into Central Asia and its own Muslim regions. And peace would give the former Soviet Central Asian states new land routes and potential pipelines through Afghanistan.
