A central pillar of US strategy in Afghanistan, enlisting Pakistan to eliminate extremist havens on its side of the border, is being tested so severely it calls into question the entire plan’s viability.
When President Barack Obama announced on March 27 his approach to turning around the war in Afghanistan, he said stronger action by neighboring Pakistan against Taleban sanctuaries on its soil was “indispensable.” He called the insurgent-infested border area “the most dangerous place in the world.” Since then, extremists not only have held their own on the border but have made inroads toward Pakistan’s capital.
The extremists, including Pakistani elements of the Taleban, are not a homogenous force; some elements are focused more on infiltrating Afghanistan to contest control of that country, while others are oriented toward destabilizing Pakistan. But in either case, the trends are growing more worrisome for an Obama administration that has decided the Afghan problem cannot be fixed without progress in Pakistan.
Reports of a pullback Friday from the militants’ latest advances toward Islamabad were greeted with measured relief in Washington, but there remains a worry that the Pakistani government is failing to deal forcefully with militants slowly advancing toward the heart of the nuclear-armed country.
Teresita Schaffer, director of the South Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said developments in Pakistan have caused “deep anxiety” among administration officials; “a worry about the viability, frankly, of any Afghan strategy, not just this one.”
There seem to be few other options for the United States in Pakistan. It has used periodic missile attacks from Predator drone aircraft to strike extremist leadership targets, but more direct military action would seem unlikely. Obama has pledged to provide more financial and other nonmilitary support, while warning Islamabad that US patience is limited.
Obama made the calculation that Pakistan’s sovereignty must be respected and therefore US ground forces would not be used inside Pakistan against the extremists, including elements of the Al-Qaeda network whose leaders are believed to be operating on the Pakistani side of the border with Afghanistan.
He said Pakistan, with US help, must show its commitment to making progress against the extremists.
Since Obama laid out that strategy, Pakistan arguably has regressed, endangering one pillar of the US plan. The other pillars are a US military and civilian buildup in Afghanistan and a redoubling of US and allied efforts to train an Afghan security force capable of handling the insurgency on its own. Obama also committed to pursuing a regional diplomatic effort, including with Iran, to help Afghanistan.
David W. Barno, a former top commander of US forces in Afghanistan, says extremists threaten to upend the very existence of Pakistan. “Events in Pakistan are spiraling out of control,” Barno told Congress on Thursday, “and our options in reversing the downward acceleration are limited at best.”
US officials have sought, with limited success, to nudge the Pakistani government toward confronting the militants. The frustration was evident in Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton’s assertion to Congress on Wednesday that the Pakistanis are “basically abdicating” to the extremists.
