Israeli and US threats against Iran are growing louder. Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon has accused Tehran of conducting insincere negotiations and says his country’s the threatened military option is no bluff. His warning echoes that of former Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh, who maintains that Israel will strike before the end of this year if the UN Security Council fails to agree upon “crippling” anti-Iranian sanctions.
Cheering from the sidelines is Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Michael Mullen, who says a nuclear-armed Iran would threaten Israel’s existence. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says the US will strengthen the military capabilities of Gulf states in the event Iran goes nuclear.
However, there is one sensible voice amidst the orchestrated yada yada, that of Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak. He says Iran does not pose an existential threat to Israel. No country does, he says…and he’s right. Let’s suppose for a moment that Iran literally wants to see Israel wiped from the map and possessed nuclear missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv.
First of all, it would be suicidal to launch them. Before you could say ‘hey presto’ Israel and its ally the US would retaliate in kind leaving most of Iran obliterated. And even if this were not the case, how could Tehran nuke Israel without killing Palestinians or seriously polluting Lebanon, Syria and Egypt? If Iran were to develop a nuclear arsenal it would only be useful as a deterrent to ensure that its enemies would think twice before initiating a first strike. If launching a nuclear war were that easy, then Moscow and Washington would be rubble by now or Islamabad and New Delhi incinerated. A visiting extraterrestrial would surely be perplexed how the only nation ever to have dropped a nuclear bomb, partnered with another which smugly conceals its nuclear capability, have the collective chutzpah to threaten a country that holds to its NPT obligations. Iran has a perfect right to enrich uranium under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty for peaceful purposes and, until now, there is no hard evidence to indicate otherwise. Moreover, Iran isn’t threatening any country militarily, doesn’t have expansionist ambitions and does not have a history of invading its neighbors. The same cannot be said for either Israel or the US.
Methinks the brouhaha over Iran’s nuclear program is nothing more than a red herring. If Iran were a client state of the US there wouldn’t be a problem. The fact that Iran is one of very few independent Middle East nations refusing to toe Washington’s line is the real issue along with its support of Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas. The West actually wants regime change in Iran. It wants the ruling ayatollahs replaced by a pro-Western puppet and to that end the US is supporting anti-government groups.
In the meantime, Israel is hyping up the ante against Iran by claiming that Hezbollah is readying itself for another war. Israel says it has seized a ship loaded with hundreds of tons of Iranian weapons bound for Hezbollah, which Hassan Nasrallah, the organization’s leader, has denied. The idea that Nasrallah would ignite another conflict is preposterous at a time when Lebanon has just announced a new unity government to include Hezbollah and when the country’s economy is on the up-and-up. If Hezbollah’s military-wing is, in fact, re-arming then such would only be for defensive purposes.
Israel does have very real fears but these have little to do with Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Of far more pressing concern is the growing demographic imbalance between Arab Israelis/Palestinians and Jewish Israelis, which bolster increasing international calls for a one-state solution based on one-man one-vote.
Secondly, Israelis worry about losing the backing of American Jews as growing numbers are distancing themselves from Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians and the Netanyahu government’s hard-line policies. The new pro-Israel lobbying organization J Street, which is pushing for two states living side by side in peace, exemplifies this new trend. At the same time, Israel is concerned that President Barack Obama isn’t such a pro-Israel champion as his predecessors. And, indeed, the relationship between Tel Aviv and Washington is currently strained over Israel’s settlement expansion and Netanyahu’s reluctance to return to the peace table based on parameters agreed by previous governments.
But most of all, perhaps, Israel fears that international justice will finally catch up with it. Despite Netanyahu’s furious lobbying of Israel’s allies, the 575-page Goldstone report on war crimes committed in Gaza was last week overwhelmingly approved by the UN General Assembly by 114 to 18. The UN Security Council earlier debated the report but declined to call a vote due to vehement US opposition. Nevertheless, the General Assembly has sent Israel a strong message and unless it complies with the report’s recommendation to hold an enquiry into Operation Cast Lead, its officials may become liable to universal jurisdiction when they travel.
Moreover, according to the Israeli English-language daily Ha’aretz, “concerns are growing in Israel’s government over the possibility of a unilateral Palestinian declaration of independence within 1967 borders” which “could potentially be recognized by the UN Security Council. Its unease is fueled by reports that the Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad has garnered a green light from the White House for the Palestinian National Authority to file “a claim of sovereignty” jointly with the Arab League. Fayyad also plans to replace UNSC resolutions 242 and 338 with a new one drawn-up to attract the support of the international community, the paper says.
Nowadays, the Palestinians are playing by the book. In spite of a mountain of obstacles they are presently choosing legal channels over violent resistance. In the court of public opinion Israel is losing. Its illegal settlement expansion, illegal apartheid fence and its wanton destruction of Gaza using illegal weapons have been spotlighted for all to see. As long as the Palestinians stay on track without succumbing to provocation there will come a day when Israel will have nowhere to hide with one exception. Big bad Iran is out to nuke poor defenseless Israel. Believe that and I’ve got a pyramid going cheap!
