Is Bosnia on the brink of further breakdown and violence? NATO leaders seem to fear so as evidenced by the high-level international diplomacy taking place in recent days. The problem lies in attempts to overhaul the temporary constitution imposed on the country in 1995 under the Dayton peace accord.
This was at best a band-aid, which established two semi-independent entities, the Bozniak-Croat Federation and the Bosnian Serb enclave, Republika Srpska. Each had its own president, government, Parliament and police. The idea was that as the benefits of peace accrued, both sides would see the virtue of closer cooperation so that in time the dividing line between their communities would start to dissolve.
No such thing, of course, has happened. Instead the Bosnian Serbs have continued to behave as if they were a ministate and make no secret of their intention to hold a referendum of their 1.5 million inhabitants on independence or union with Serbia. Since some 88 percent of the population is ethnic Serb, it seems likely that such a vote would go in favor of a break away from Bosnia.
It is clear now that in bringing about an end to the fighting, the Dayton deal sacrificed too much in the way of Bosnian sovereignty. The rotating presidency that was supposed to act as a unifying factor has instead served to heighten divisions and rivalries. Meanwhile, the existence of an almost completely formed Bosnian Serb government has allowed local Serb leaders to ignore the long-term goal of union and focus instead on a path toward independence.
The danger for the Bosnian state which has nominal rule over the largely Serbian-occupied territory is that a decision by the Serbs to leave could trigger similar action by the Bosnian Croat minority in the country. For a part of the world where history counts for much, this state of affairs is unfortunately all too familiar.
Bosnia itself, save for a brief independent history as a Christian state in the Middle Ages, was always dominated by a neighbor, including Hungary and the princes of Herzegovina. Its conquest by the Turks and subsequent Islamization gave it a fresh but not independent identity, which was abhorred by the Serbs who frequently rebelled against Ottoman rule. Therefore the Dayton deal was not only unrealistic but some have argued, also pushed against the grain of history. The new Bosnia was, some say, a failed state from the start.
The United States and the EU are now struggling to cope with the result of the draughtsmanship at Dayton. The only leverage is EU membership for Serbia, Croatia and ultimately Bosnia itself. Why, it is asked, should communities once again tear themselves apart when they will be united within the EU? Unfortunately we have the continued breakaway violence in Spain’s Basque region and by die-hard Republicans in the UK’s Northern Ireland, to prove this is no answer.
Some forceful and insightful action is, therefore, needed quickly by the international community to lance this new and rising ball of conflict before it is too late.
