Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari has brushed aside a recent flurry of speculation he would be forced from office with a defiant show of strength but problems for the pro-America leader are far from over.
A Supreme Court ruling last month throwing out an amnesty for Zardari, several top aides and thousands of political activists and government figures triggered a political storm and expectation that Zardari was on his way out. The outcry over the old corruption cases appeared more dangerous to the president than a struggling economy and the fall-out from mounting militant violence.
As the United States stepped up pressure on Pakistan to go after Afghan Taleban factions in border strongholds, Zardari’s opponents and a hostile section of the media closed in, heaping pressure on the beleaguered leader and his aides to stand down. But Zardari not only rejected the calls to resign but launched an aggressive campaign to defy his opponents.
Speaking on the second anniversary of the death of his wife, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who was killed in a suicide attack in late 2007, Zardari rejected resignation calls and vowed to defeat those he described as enemies of democracy.
Analysts say Zardari’s counterattack worked, putting his opponents on the defensive and winning some political space. “The strong pressure that developed on Zardari in December seems to have somewhat eased for now,” said political analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi.
In recent days, he has been able to win public support from his allies, and legislative assemblies in three of the nuclear-armed country’s four provinces have passed resolutions trumpeting confidence in his leadership. The embattled president, ridiculed by opponents for not daring to venture out of a high-security “bunker” at the presidential residence in Islamabad, is now visiting all corners of the country to drum up support. He has traveled to his native province of Sindh as well as Pakistani-ruled Kashmir.
This week he is visiting Punjab, the country’s most populous and politically important province, and will later go to North West Frontier Province on the Afghan border, the epicenter of an insurgency he has vowed to extirpate. But there’s no room for complacency.
Opposition can emerge at any time from various quarters. “He has got some political space but I don’t think he is out of the woods as yet,” said Najam Sethi, a political commentator and editor of the weekly Friday Times. Probably the biggest immediate danger for Zardari is the possibility of a legal challenge to his eligibility for the office of president. Though Zardari does not face the reopening of old graft cases, because of his presidential immunity, his eligibility for office could be challenged on the basis of a constitutional requirement for the “trustworthiness” of political leaders. Much will depend on how aggressively the courts go after him.
Meanwhile the army is lurking in the background. It has vowed to stay out of politics and nobody is predicting a military coup under current circumstances but some conspiracy theorists see the military, which is known to be suspicious of Zardari, as angling for a new president. Zardari’s relations with his main political rival, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, are also brittle.
Sharif’s party accuses Zardari of dragging his feet on promised constitutional reforms to transfer sweeping presidential powers to the prime minister and parliament.
“Different people have different interests in seeing the end of this government. Nawaz Sharif may want an early election, the judiciary may want to become popular while the army considers this government incompetent,” Sethi said.
However, analysts say despite his vulnerability, there is no easy way to force Zardari from office. Under the constitution, a president can be thrown out through impeachment in Parliament but Zardari and his allies enjoy a majority there.
Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, a top member of Zardari’s party, who many people believed was at odds with the president, has defended Zardari and rejected calls for his resignation. Though many people doubt Zardari will be able to complete his full term, due to end in 2013, for now he looks to be in the saddle though in for a bumpy ride. “You’ll see this sort of uncertainty, confusion and power struggle continuing,” Sethi said.
