An initiative by Western powers seeking peace with the Taleban in Afghanistan is forcing India to modify its policy toward the group to avoid being marginalized in a country Delhi sees as key to Indian security.
Indian officials fear an Afghan plan endorsed by global powers to win over Taleban foot soldiers will give rival Pakistan a greater say in the peace process and may ultimately lead to a Taleban takeover once Western forces leave Afghanistan.
The six-decade India and Pakistan rivalry since their independence from Britain in 1947 has turned Afghanistan into a proxy battleground, whose control both countries see as vital to their interests.
Their rivalry complicates Western efforts to stabilize Afghanistan.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s call on Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to help reach out to the Taleban is threatening to undo eight years of financial and diplomatic investment that gave New Delhi great influence over Kabul.
“Delhi’s failure to respond to the changing situation in Afghanistan might cause huge setbacks for India,” C. Raja Mohan, a foreign policy expert at the US Library of Congress, wrote in the Indian Express newspaper on Monday.
“India had a great run in Afghanistan in Phase One (since 2001 until recently) ... However, the stasis that had gripped India’s security policy in recent months and some fine maneuvering by the Pakistani Army threaten to marginalize Delhi in Phase Two.” The urgency to acquire a role in Afghanistan, even if limited, may have already prompted India to soften its stand on the Taleban so as not to be seen as blocking the peace process.
Indian Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna said at the weekend New Delhi was willing to back efforts to seek peace with the Taleban to stabilize neighboring Afghanistan.
“We are willing to give it a try,” Krishna said, provided the Taleban accepted the Afghan constitution and severed connections with Al-Qaeda and other militant groups.
India seeks to retain influence in Afghanistan to deter any anti-India militant training camps there — which it accuses rival Pakistan of backing — and to more generally try to counter a militant surge threatening regional security.
The Karzai administration, for its part, has deep suspicions about Pakistan, which considers Afghanistan as a strategic fallback position in the event of another war with India, and because of Islamabad’s ties to the Taleban.
“If the outcome of the London meeting is to be assessed, the world is trying to cut a deal with the Taleban and India has to accept that,” said Uday Bhaskar, head of New Delhi-based strategic affairs think tank National Maritime Foundation.
“India has to shape its policy in the light of this reality ... otherwise it runs the danger of being on a standalone mode.”
But India’s traditional ties with Afghanistan and its popularity with Afghans from Bollywood films to aid projects — it is spending $1.2 billion to build roads and power lines in Afghanistan — puts New Delhi on firm ground in the war-torn country.
It is this aspect of their relationship that India could be strengthening in the coming years as a counterpoint to any Pakistan-backed move to marginalize New Delhi.
“India’s presence in Afghanistan is tremendous and it is that goodwill that clearly gives India its strength,” said Savita Pande, professor of South Asian studies at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Last week, India announced hundreds of fellowships to support Afghan students pursuing higher education in the field of agriculture, a sector seen as crucial for improving Afghan lives.
“India has always been Afghanistan’s development partner and this is a strong aspect of the relationship that will be developed further,” said an Indian government official.
Moreover, a quick breakthrough with the Taleban is no certainty, given that the militants may be in no mood to compromise at a time when they are tightening their hold over much of Afghanistan.
“So we have to see how realistic this peace offer is,” said a Western diplomat, who asked not to be named.
“The other aspect is whether Pakistan still retains the same influence over all sections of Pashtuns, because their leverage has largely been over the hard-line faction, which in any case is unlikely to be part of the peace process.”
