Vali Nasr, a leading thinker on the Islamic world, professor of International Politics at Tuft’s University and a senior adviser to Richard Holbrooke, has tackled a timely topic in his latest publication, “Forces of Fortune.”
The author emphasizes the importance of the middle class for the political and economic stability of the Middle East. He scans meticulously the complex landscape of the Middle East where the rising of a new middle class symbolizes the successful fusion of Islamic piety and capitalism.
Contrary to popular belief, the wave of Islamic resurgence which has spread across the region since the 1980s has not turned the region into a haven for extremism. Muslims are largely moderate and pragmatic thanks to the positive legacy of the 1970s oil boom which lifted millions of people out of poverty. Much was done in the field of education and in some countries women are outnumbering men in universities. All these successful measures have given birth to a more educated population which is presently facing a number of challenges.
The public sector, in a number of countries, can no longer guarantee well-paid jobs. Many parents, concerned for their children’s future, have realized that the solution lies with the private sector and not the state. A whole new economy, despite a crippling inflation, is flourishing across the Middle East. Luxurious malls are not only being built in Gulf countries but also in Lebanon, Iran and Egypt to name but a few.
Satellite television has played an incommensurable role, politically, socially and economically. A new breed of consumers influenced by Western programs and high-quality advertising are buying mobile phones, computers and a host of other trendy products. At the end of 2008, in war-torn Afghanistan, one quarter of the population was using a mobile phone and in neighboring Pakistan 78 million people had mobile phones.
The global Muslim population totals more than a billion people. A billion consumers have clout says the author as the demand for Islamic goods and services is growing. This can clearly be seen with the astonishing development of Islamic finance which has been growing at the rate of 15 to 20 percent per year.
There are presently more than 300 Islamic banks operating in more than 75 countries. It is interesting to see banks such as Credit Suisse, HSBC, Barclays and Deutsche Bank, offering Islamic finance for a growing number of Muslims in the West.
“Like microcredit, Islamic finance was a response to a moral imperative: To fulfill a demand for loans by those who wanted their business to be in compliance with the Shariah. The largest Islamic financial institution, Saudi Arabia’s Al-Rajhi Bank, started operations as a small firm for providing the interest-free equivalent of modest loans, and it grew largely by bringing in new, piously interest-averse investors,” says Nasr who believes that Islamic banking which has become part of global financial trade and will serve as a vehicle for integrating the Muslim economy into the world economy. This enlightening study shows clearly that the new economy in the Middle East is driven by pious businessmen and not from “state-led initiatives and the state-sponsored economic elites associated with them.”
All along the book, the author enforces the belief that an interest in business triggers a move toward moderation. He also acknowledges that “the less commerce there is among the lower classes, and the poorer the society, the more appeal revolutionaries will exert.”
This is especially true for Pakistan. Nasr devotes a whole chapter to that country: A marvelous combination of historical analysis and insightful reporting.
He reiterates the book’s leitmotif that is: Strengthening the middle class is the key to moderation. He also stresses that a stable and growing Pakistan economy depends on providing entrepreneurs and businessmen with financial support and access to global markets.
“Pakistanis are capable of getting the job done. When outside their own country, in Dubai, London, or New York, they are every bit as competitive as Indian or Chinese business-people. It is back at home that constraints hobble them.”
The Middle East is facing many challenges such as rising inflation which is pushing many ordinary people toward poverty. Dubai’s economic problems and the global financial crisis have also caused much concern but some countries, Lebanon for example, have benefited from the situation. Lebanese banks are offering investors guarantees that do not exist in the West, so money is coming back, in a big way, to Beirut where real estate prices are also soaring. Beirut is set to claim back the role it played in the ’60s and early ’70s.
Dubai, on the other hand, might never be the same but Nasr correctly points out that its “economic pains are proof of how rightly tied its economy is to that of the rest of the world.”
Most importantly, Dubai has shown that a thriving economy is possible when regulations are eased and a fruitful partnership develops between the private and the public sector.
Nasr also highlights the strong economic and social ties that bind Dubai to Iran. He not only believes the Iranians in Dubai are the key to political change in their country but also that the fate of the Middle East is linked in many ways to Iran: “As goes Iran so will the Middle East; we had better take good care where we send Iran.”
“Forces of Fortune” is an important book. Nasr’s brilliant study, combined with shrewd reporting, shows us how the distinctive blend of Islam and capitalism is creating a new “Muslim world economy.” This economy is largely due to a rising Muslim class that yearns for business and not extremism and holds the key to the Middle East’s future.
“Forces of Fortune” will interest anyone concerned by the situations in Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Dubai and Turkey as well as the future of the Middle East. It provides the reader with a positive understanding of the Muslim world and a pragmatic solution to its socio-political and economic problems.
