Analysis: Allawi has uphill road to turn Iraq win into power

Author: 
JIM LONEY | REUTERS
Publication Date: 
Sun, 2010-03-28 22:01

It is far from certain he will get that chance.
The secularist Allawi's loose-knit Iraqiya alliance won Iraq's March 7 parliamentary election by a whisker. The result is widely interpreted to mean Iraqis are weary of religious politics and ready to embrace a government that can supply electricity and jobs.
The British-trained physician who wants to return to the prime minister's office he held in a 2004-5 transitional government won the popular vote and got two seats more than Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki in the new parliament.
He said on Saturday that the path to a new government ran through Iraqiya.
But officials with Maliki's State of Law bloc and a fellow Shiite coalition, the Iraqi National Alliance, say they are talking about a merger that would make anti-American Shiite Moqtada Al-Sadr, whose Mehdi Army fought fiercely against US troops, a power player in Iraq's new political landscape.
"The government will not form (from other than) State of Law and INA because the kingmaker now is Moqtada Al-Sadr," Iraqi political analyst Ibrahim Al-Sumaidaie said. "Moqtada will not stand in front of the Shiites and Iran and tell them 'I got you a mainly Sunni government with Baathist links.'" An erstwhile member of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party who spent decades in exile from Saddam's Iraq, Allawi says he survived an assassination attempt by Baathist agents in 1987.
But lingering doubts about his allegiances were fueled by his election union with perceived Baathist sympathisers, including prominent Sunni politician Saleh Al-Mutlaq. Mutlaq was barred from running due to alleged Baathist ties.
Allawi has said he is open to alliances with anyone. Iraqiya is talking with INA and its major component, the Sadrists, as well as the Kurds. He also said in a television interview on Saturday he is talking to some members of Maliki's party, Dawa.
 

"Shiite parties have raised objections to some of the characters in the Iraqiya list who they say are loyal to the Baath Party," Baghdad university professor Haider Hameed said.
"Kurds also have objections and disagreements ... and competing parties disagree with their approach and thinking, and consider a coalition deal with Iraqiya is an impossible task." Maliki himself has indicated he would not give up his post without a fight, possibly in court. State of Law has lots of potential partners.
A union with Allawi appears unlikely but Maliki may try to pick off parts of his rival's coalition.
"We intend to form a coalition sufficient to form the next government and we have other big options in this realm that we are satisfied with," he said, "But if some blocs belonging to the Iraqiya list want to join us, we welcome them." There's no guarantee Allawi will even get first crack at forming a government. Under a court ruling issued last week, that could go to the bloc with the largest number of seats not from the election, but after parliament is seated.
That means any coalition that can persuade another bloc to join it when parliament convenes can count the former rival's numbers in its total, an opportunity for Maliki to make up his two-seat election deficit.
Despite the formidable task ahead - bringing Kurds, Sunnis and fellow Shiites together under his banner - Allawi has the benefit of being able to claim a mandate from war-weary Iraqis.
 
Meddlesome neighbor
And those who abhor outside interference in their nation's affairs may view him as a moderate alternative to Maliki and his possible allies, who are all tied to Iran, a neighbor perceived as meddlesome, with memories of an eight-year war still fresh.
"Should Allawi succeed in his bid to form a government, Iraq's relations with Iran would shift to a more 'correct' posture, with Allawi offering cooperation, but warning Tehran against interference," said Wayne White, a scholar at the Middle East Institute.
Iran has more influence in Iraq than even the United States, which has 96,000 troops here, according to some analysts.
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, and Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi, a senior member of INA's Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, were in Tehran on Friday, the day Iraq announced vote results, for meetings with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
The same day, representatives of Maliki's State of Law and the Sadrist movement went to meet Moqtada Al-Sadr, who is studying in Iran, according to party sources.
Once a vocal critic of Tehran for helping Shiite militias fighting on Iraqi soil, Allawi has toned down his language and reached out, not only to Shiite Iran but to Arab Gulf neighbors who are predominantly Sunni.
"An Allawi government probably could count on ... far more recognition, support and cooperation from important Sunni Arab governments such as those of the Arab Gulf states, Egypt and Jordan, where he has extensive, longstanding contacts and where he is viewed quite favorably - even as a bulwark against Iran," White said.
"Shiite parties have raised objections to some of the characters in the Iraqiya list who they say are loyal to the Baath Party," Baghdad university professor Haider Hameed said.
"Kurds also have objections and disagreements ... and competing parties disagree with their approach and thinking, and consider a coalition deal with Iraqiya is an impossible task." Maliki himself has indicated he would not give up his post without a fight, possibly in court. State of Law has lots of potential partners.
A union with Allawi appears unlikely but Maliki may try to pick off parts of his rival's coalition.
"We intend to form a coalition sufficient to form the next government and we have other big options in this realm that we are satisfied with," he said, "But if some blocs belonging to the Iraqiya list want to join us, we welcome them." There's no guarantee Allawi will even get first crack at forming a government. Under a court ruling issued last week, that could go to the bloc with the largest number of seats not from the election, but after parliament is seated.
That means any coalition that can persuade another bloc to join it when parliament convenes can count the former rival's numbers in its total, an opportunity for Maliki to make up his two-seat election deficit.
Despite the formidable task ahead - bringing Kurds, Sunnis and fellow Shiites together under his banner - Allawi has the benefit of being able to claim a mandate from war-weary Iraqis.
 

And those who abhor outside interference in their nation's affairs may view him as a moderate alternative to Maliki and his possible allies, who are all tied to Iran, a neighbor perceived as meddlesome, with memories of an eight-year war still fresh.
"Should Allawi succeed in his bid to form a government, Iraq's relations with Iran would shift to a more 'correct' posture, with Allawi offering cooperation, but warning Tehran against interference," said Wayne White, a scholar at the Middle East Institute.
Iran has more influence in Iraq than even the United States, which has 96,000 troops here, according to some analysts.
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, and Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi, a senior member of INA's Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, were in Tehran on Friday, the day Iraq announced vote results, for meetings with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
The same day, representatives of Maliki's State of Law and the Sadrist movement went to meet Moqtada Al-Sadr, who is studying in Iran, according to party sources.
Once a vocal critic of Tehran for helping Shiite militias fighting on Iraqi soil, Allawi has toned down his language and reached out, not only to Shiite Iran but to Arab Gulf neighbors who are predominantly Sunni.
"An Allawi government probably could count on ... far more recognition, support and cooperation from important Sunni Arab governments such as those of the Arab Gulf states, Egypt and Jordan, where he has extensive, longstanding contacts and where he is viewed quite favorably - even as a bulwark against Iran," White said.

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