Mud flies in Philippine poll; markets eye clean winner

Author: 
MANNY MOGATO | REUTERS
Publication Date: 
Fri, 2010-04-23 19:49

Analysts said the biggest concern in markets was whether a clear winner would emerge from the contest rather than which of the two front runners - Senators Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino and Manuel "Manny" Villar - stood the best chance.
Both are seen as centrists on fiscal and economic policy.
"The current political noise is no longer affecting the local markets," Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist of Banco de Oro, told Reuters.
"Our economy is on the road to recovery. There's so much confidence now, unless we see some major disruptions in the elections like delays that could affect the credibility of the process." The most recent opinion polls, dating from late March, show Aquino, son of late former president Cory Aquino, with support above 35 percent. Businessman Villar's support stands in the mid-to-high 20 percent levels.
Former President Joseph Estrada lies third with support near 20 percent, while administration candidate Gilberto Teodoro is a distant fourth, but analysts say he could make a late surge.
"While we are hesitant to call a clear frontrunner given the narrow margin between their support ratings, Aquino and Villar have announced similar economic policies on fiscal consolidation, enhancing the business environment, and allocating government resources, which we see as broadly favorable for international investors," Standard Chartered Bank analysts said in a report.
Concerns remain that the country's first automated national vote will encounter technical or other problems or that violence could erupt at a local level between rival political clans. But talk of juntas and coups has faded for now.
Buoyed by a regional rally and a strong pick-up in foreign buying since mid-March, the stock market has soared to its highest level since early 2008 and the peso has risen to its strongest in nearly two years.
The yield on the benchmark 20-year government bond has fallen to six-month lows, and five-year credit default swap spreads have fallen by more than 50 basis points from February levels.
Ahead of the vote, candidates have fended off allegations, sometimes made anonymously and spread via text message, of mental health problems, drug use, stock market manipulation, impropriety and secret alliances with the unpopular incumbent, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.
"We already expect these things to come, but they will not be a reason for investors to sell their assets," said an economist at a foreign bank in Manila.
Markets would only start to worry if there were signs the election outcome may be inconclusive or disputed, he said.
"The victory of either candidate will cause locals and investors to initially focus more on their positives, which will improve near-term perceptions of governance," Roberto Herrera-Lim of US-based Eurasia Group said.
Banco de Oro's Ravelas said markets wanted a fast and credible result, and would then start examining the fiscal policies of the new president due to the huge budget deficit.
The next administration could not avoid raising sales tax rates or getting tougher on revenue generation and collection, Ravelas said.
 

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