The final Reuters/Ipsos MORI marginals poll, which surveys voters living in the kind of constituencies held by the ruling Labour party that the Conservatives need to win for a majority, shows support for the parties in these seats is neck and neck.
That represents a 7 percent swing in support to the Conservatives from Labour compared with the last general election in 2005, and could be just enough to put them into power without the need for support from other parties.
Like other national polls, the previous four Reuters/Ipsos MORI polls — the most recent of which was published last Thursday — suggested the country was on course for a “hung parliament” in which no party had a majority of seats.
However, the latest poll suggests the Conservative Party could now be on course for a majority of around two seats in the 650-seat House of Commons after the May 6 election, wresting control from Labour after 13 years. This is the first major poll in weeks to indicate such an outcome.
“These findings show the Conservatives on the verge of winning enough seats to secure the narrowest of majorities,” said Roger Mortimore, Head of Political and Electoral Research at Ipsos MORI.
However, he said that with a third of voters still prepared to change their minds, a more comfortable Conservative win or a slip back to a hung parliament were possible. “The last few days before voting will be crucial,” he said.
The center-right Conservatives have warned throughout the campaign about what they see as the dangers of a hung parliament, arguing this would leave the government without the ability to tackle the country’s huge debts swiftly.
Because of the quirks of Britain’s electoral system, a strong showing in a handful of swing seats known as marginals, in which one party has a slender lead, is more important than a party’s popularity nationally.
The Reuters/Ipsos MORI poll, conducted across 57 Labour-held constituencies, shows that 36 percent of people in these marginals now plan to vote Conservative — the same number who would vote for center-left Labour — compared with 35 percent last week who said Conservative and 38 percent who said Labour.
Markets are concerned that an inconclusive election could complicate efforts to tackle a budget deficit running at in excess of 11 percent of GDP.
Influential US investor Jim Rogers, who has long been negative about the outlook for the pound, said politicians from all the major parties had failed to spell out the depths of the economic problems Britain faces.
“I don’t see a solution on the horizon, I don’t see any politician in the UK acknowledging the extent of the problems or willing to do anything about it,” he told BBC Radio 4.
