More than 7 million people are registered to vote in Wednesday’s constitutional referendum, which is being held in defiance of regional efforts to find a negotiated solution that would involve the president ousted in 2009 and other leaders. A key clause in the charter states that the current leader of a so-called High Transitional Authority — coup leader Andry Rajoelina — would remain in power until a new president is elected.
Writer and legal expert Johary Ravaloson says that amounts to giving Rajoelina a blank check.
“Because he’s set no date for stepping down, nor spelled out conditions for the next elections,” Ravaloson said.
This nation of 20 million has been at political stalemate, with violence occasionally flaring, since Rajoelina’s military-backed and widely denounced takeover in March 2009 sent President Marc Ravalomanana into exile in South Africa. Rajoelina has refused to allow Ravalomanana to return. In August, a court Rajoelina established convicted Ravalomanana in absentia of conspiracy to commit murder and sentenced him to life in prison in a case related to the turmoil of the coup that toppled him.
Supporters of Ravalomanana and two other former presidents have called for a boycott of the vote. Last week, police clashed with pro-boycott protesters — the police minister had outlawed public denunciations of the vote.
A day after the march, police arrested Ravalomanana’s top aide in Madagascar and two other politicians who have opposed the referendum, accusing them of joining an illegal protest. They were ordered held at least until a hearing next week, after the scheduled vote.
Michel Andrianirina, a student who identified himself as a Ravalomanana supporter, said he would not be going to the polls Wednesday.
“This country won’t escape crisis unless the former presidents are part of the process,” he said. “At any rate, the international community will never accept this step.” But midwife Doris Rasoarinoro, another Ravalomanana supporter, said she would vote.
“I will vote ‘no,’ because an abstention won’t count, and even with a weak turnout, the ‘yes’ could take it,” she said.
Raharinaivo Andrianatoandro, president of a transitional legislature established by Rajoelina, said those who don’t vote “have failed to understand the importance of this process.” Rajoelina accuses Ravalomanana, a wealthy businessman, of misuse of office and of being blind to poverty on the island famous for lemurs and other wildlife found nowhere else in the world, and the inspiration for two animated films of the same name. Ravalomanana says his rival, a disc jockey turned entrepreneur, is a populist and rabble-rouser with little genuine interest in democracy.
The impasse has meant hardship for the impoverished island. The United States froze millions in aid to protest what was seen as an assault on democracy. The European Union also suspended all but emergency and humanitarian aid. With bureaucracy in turmoil because of uncertainty over who holds power, international aid groups have expressed concern about a deteriorating public health infrastructure.
Infighting has been a hallmark of politics in Madagascar.
Many believe Rajoelina was somehow linked to Didier Ratsiraka, one of the country’s longest-serving leaders and one of Ravalomanana’s most bitter rivals.
Ratsiraka took over from military rulers in 1975 and led the country for the next 16 years, presiding over a socialist and highly centralized state and clamping down on the opposition.
As the economy deteriorated and the opposition pushed for political space, Ratsiraka was forced to adopt reforms. He lost key support when troops fired on demonstrators in 1991, killing dozens. Ratsiraka lost a 1992 vote, only to emerge again to win in 1997.
The next election in 2001 pitted Ratsiraka against Ravalomanana. The results were disputed and low-level fighting split the country between two governments, two capitals and two presidents. Ratsiraka fled to France in June 2002.
Now, Ratsiraka has joined Ravalomanana and another former president, Albert Zafy, in opposing Rajoelina.
