First, let’s look at mobile handsets. Pyramid Research predicts that the global handset market will grow roughly eight percent in total handset unit sell-through in 2011, resulting in more than 1.4 billion devices sold. According to Pyramid, basic ultra-low cost handsets, inexpensive smartphones and Android-based devices will see the most demand this year, with very high demand for handsets coming from emerging markets.
“The demand in these markets will remain skewed toward very basic, ultra-low cost handsets in 2011 and, given the size of these markets, their preferences will dictate the global demand trends, too,” said Stela Bokun, senior analyst, Pyramid Research.
While smartphones have seen skyrocketing demand in developed markets in 2010, Pyramid projects even stronger demand for these handsets in emerging markets going forward. The growing popularity of the Android OS will be one of the drivers of this trend. Some of the less fancy Smartphones are already priced between $150 and $200. Many analysts believe that a smartphone with a decent browser, reasonably sized touchscreen and camera will be available soon for about $100.
Next, please consider eBook readers. Amazon’s Kindle has been the most publicized of the reader devices, but Barnes & Noble’s Nook, Kobo’s eReader, Sony’s Reader and even the iPad are providing some competition in this space, mostly in North America. While sales of eBook readers will continue to grow, the devices won’t really expand in global popularity until 2013. ABI Research asserts that the device brand of the eBook reader won’t be as important as the content. Markets outside North America will be less driven by booksellers, such as Amazon, and more by publishers and perhaps even network operators.
“Digitized content is the key,” said Jeff Oys principal analyst, ABI Research. “It has been in the United States that the most content has been translated to digital form. The companies that provide the devices also maintain tightly-integrated content stores that make access easy. In two or three years we will enter a period in which much more digital printed matter will become available in other countries and regions. Western Europe will be first, followed by Eastern Europe and Asia, especially China.”
For global market success, Oys believes that an eBook reader must be priced at less than $100. The expectation of falling prices is definitely a trend in 2011. This will be especially evident in that new computing form factor, the tablet. Two-thirds of potential iPad buyers expect to pay less than $500 or 500 Euros, according to a survey of 4800 US and European consumers conducted by Strategy Analytics’ Tablet and Touchscreen Strategies service. With iPad retail pricing starting at $499 in the US, price is likely to present Apple with its first major hurdle as it seeks to sustain the iPad’s early success. The report concludes that competitors may gain tablet market share by targeting consumers’ price expectations, and that Apple will eventually be forced to offer lower priced iPads.
The study also found that iPad users are not simply hardcore Apple fans. Many continue to use mobile phones and computers from other brands, and still feel positively towards them. Only 22 percent of iPad users also use an iPhone, for example. The survey offers strong evidence that other technology firms such as Blackberry/RIM, Samsung and Motorola should be able use their own brand loyalty to tap into the burgeoning demand for tablet devices.
In the area of social media, Ravit Lichteneberg, Ustrategy LLC’s Founder & Chief Strategist has revealed what she thinks will be the top trends for 2011. Her predictions are based on interviews conducted with more than 100 executives and experts in the field of social media. Lichtenberg sees a shift from innovation and exploration to productivity and efficiently in the social space.
“In the coming year we will witness social media moving up the value chain as large integrators and service providers take over what until now has been a piecemeal experience,” she commented. “These companies will bundle social technologies with their services and provide a more complete and streamlined solution set that helps both consumers and organizations navigate their social lives more effectively. Additionally, we will finally start to see more companies who try to integrate social feedback into their decision-making process. As ‘social thinkers,’ these companies will use the social engine to inform strategic decisions, and execute on the organization’s objectives, marketing plans, product road-maps, sales process and much more.”
Perhaps the largest forecast of trends for 2011 comes from marketing communications company J. Walter Thompson (JWT). In discussing its sixth annual forecast, Ann Mack, director of trendspotting at JWT said, “As devices become deeply ingrained in people’s lives, we’re seeing technology becoming a core possession and skill to master worldwide. And as the Web and our gadgets evolve, we’re getting to a point where the cyber and real worlds are meshing, with the digital world becoming more personalized to individual users. But as our dependency on technology rises, so too will our desire to log off or dial it down, at least temporarily.”
Download the report, “100 Things to Watch in 2011,” through www.jwtintelligence.com
