A deep shade of green for next German government

More than any other politician, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has dominated the political landscape not only of post-war Germany but also the EU, setting the tone for her country as well as the bloc for almost two decades.

But as Merkel prepares to hang up her gloves and hand over the baton to her successor in the Reichstag, a political earthquake of sorts is underway. With barely a month to go before the parliamentary elections, the German leader’s center-right CDU has lost considerable ground to its traditional rival, the socialist SPD party, mainly due to the lackluster performance of Armin Laschet, Merkel’s successor as CDU chief as well as her party’s candidate for chancellorship.

In mid-April, according to opinion polls, support for the CDU-CSU alliance stood at a solid 38 percent, more than twice that of the two key rivals, the SPD and the Greens, both of which stood at 16 percent. However, Laschet’s bland personality as well as past comments have seen this hefty and winning margin evaporate in a matter of four months. According to surveys conducted on Aug. 18, CDU-CSU approval barely reached 24 percent, while the SPD support was climbing to 20 percent and the Greens about 19 percent.

Laschet is also severely underperforming in terms of who the Germans want to see as the new chancellor. While the SPD candidate and Germany’s Finance Minister Olaf Scholz leads the polls with over 22 percent, Laschet trails with 13 percent, level with the Green candidate Annalena Baerbock.

The exact composition of the next Reichstag as well as the name of the person who will replace Merkel as German leader is still a matter of conjecture, but one thing that is almost certain is that for the first time in the country’s parliamentary history the Greens will have a presence in the national government and not just a minor role, but indeed as one of the biggest partners. According to various polls, the chances of that happening are a staggering 81 percent. In almost all calculations, no government seems possible without the Greens being part of it.

If the current opinion polls hold true on Sept. 26, it will signal a major landmark in the German and European political landscape. Indeed, it would be no exaggeration to compare the long-term implications for Germany and the EU to the fall of the Berlin Wall and collapse of communism in 1989.

In many ways, this “green revolution” could not have come at a better or more opportune time. The arrival of the Greens as a sizable partner in Europe’s largest economy will come weeks before the key climate change meeting COP26, due to be held in Glasgow in November. It will also come weeks after the latest warning on global warming issued by the UN-led Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In the IPCC’s “code red” warning, scientists said that within this decade global temperature rises are set to exceed the limit of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels beyond which climate change will be irreversible, with damaging results for billions of people.

Thus, the arrival of the Greens in government may be just what is needed to boost German, European and global efforts to cut back carbon and methane emissions, and for leaderships to ensure that businesses not only meet their targets to cut emissions but also do all that is needed to protect the environment.

The Greens have already outlined their agenda. Last month, in a 10-point program detailing their climate commitment, they said that the 2015 Paris climate accord will be at the heart of all decisions taken by the government. The Greens are proposing a climate ministry that will, interestingly and controversially, be able to veto any government decision that goes against the goals of the Paris agreement.

Other proposed measures include a significant increase in renewable energy in Germany’s energy mix and a requirement for all new public buildings to have solar roofing. The Greens also want a faster phasing out of fossil fuels from the German economy, meaning an end to the burning of coal and the sale of combustion engine vehicles by 2030 — well ahead of other major global economies. These measures will help Germany cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 70 percent by 2030 compared with the 55 percent target set by the current government.

Besides phasing out coal and gas from power production, one of the most controversial measures proposed by the Greens is a 130 kph speed limit on all highways across the country. Though many car-loving Germans strictly oppose such a move, the Greens justify their plan by saying it will save nearly 2 million tons of carbon emissions every year.

While the German Greens will steer Germany toward a clean and green economy, they are also almost certain to push the EU to take some hard decisions in order to show the world what it takes to curb carbon emissions and avoid catastrophe.

Indeed, expectations are that the party will also pressure the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and major economies to take steps to ensure that it is not too late to save the earth.

• Ranvir S. Nayar is managing editor of Media India Group.