Few people in Britain are dancing or singing; the mood is somber, even a tad depressed. So when the Prime Minister, Theresa May, bounded on to the stage of the annual Conservative Party Conference to Abba’s “Dancing Queen,” it did seem somewhat out of kilter with the times — a bit like her dance moves 

She now needs to practice her quickstep if she is to obtain a Brexit deal at the EU summit on Oct. 17; a scenario that seems distant. European leaders suggest it might happen by the end of the year. 

A host of potential outcomes remain that could tax the most incisive futurologists. The EU and the UK could agree a mutually acceptable deal, a respectable divorce, which would then meander its way through the parliaments of the 27 EU member states, as well Britain’s. What is not clear is that the British House of Commons can muster a majority for any type of deal, at least not without serious climb downs in various political camps. The PM’s so-called Chequers deal that barely has her Cabinet’s approval cannot command a majority. Not enough will vote for remaining in the single market. One option is the so-called Canada +++ deal — a favourite of arch-Brexiteers and one that European Council President Donald Tusk says is on the table. He tweeted: “From the very beginning, the EU offer has been a Canada+++ deal. Much further-reaching on trade, internal security and foreign policy cooperation. This is a true measure of respect. And this offer remains in place.”

The drawback is the issue of the Northern Irish border, an obstacle that challenges any conceivable deal. No plan has come close to resolving the issue and how to avoid checks along the 310-mile frontier. The British government adamantly refuses to back down and allow a border in the Irish Sea. Yet faint noises are emanating from officials that perhaps a compromise hybrid semi-solution will be forthcoming.

Secondly, the EU parliaments could reject any negotiated deal, throwing it back at the negotiators, who might struggle to find an alternative, not least by the deadline of March 29, 2019, when Britain is due to leave. The UK might be able to seek and achieve a brief delay if a deal was deemed to be possible. 

Thirdly, a no-deal scenario looms, triggering oodles of driving off a cliff edge analogies. The gap between the parties is perhaps too huge, and the warring camps in Britain too divided. The risks of a no-deal Brexit are incalculable: Airbus claims 110,000 jobs are involved in its supply chain in the UK, while Toyota says it would have to halt car production for an indefinite period, threatening yet more jobs. 

The government hardly oozes confidence when it feels compelled to appoint a minister for food supplies — yes, you read that right, the world’s sixth-largest economy is adopting fallback options more familiar at times of war or famine. 

Another general election is also conceivable, but the parties and the electorate have yet to recover from two elections and a referendum in the space of three-and-a-half years. The appetite is hardly there, and even the Labour leadership is not convinced it can obtain a clear majority.

None of the contenders for May's job really want to take over the wheel just before the car crashes

Chris Doyle

The Conservative Party could turn on May, with rumors of leadership bids an almost daily occurrence since the June 2017 election. However, despite all of the threats and bluster, the reality is that none of the contenders really want to take over the wheel just before the car crashes. And, despite the mayhem, the most recent poll shows the PM as the public’s preferred leader.

But there is also the distinct possibility of a second referendum, which some refer to as a “people’s vote” (although in reality it would be a second people’s vote). May is currently ruling this option out, as are many others, including the leader of the opposition. But, if Parliament is gridlocked, it might be the only way to clear the blockage. The Scottish National Party, the third-largest party in Westminster, now says it will back a second referendum on Brexit. 

But how would the question be phrased? Would it just be a choice between the government’s proposal and a no-deal option? Or would it include an option to ditch Brexit? Not only that, but even if referendum legislation was initiated now, there would not be enough time to organize a vote, with all the right safeguards and electoral procedures, before March 29. The official campaign period is 10 weeks. Moreover, May is not going to even consider this until it becomes clear she has no choice, which may not be for some weeks. The EU would have to agree to delay Article 50 and, in all likelihood, the bloc’s leaders would insist in return that “remain” was an option on the ballot paper. 

The outcome of any second referendum, if it was to occur, cannot be assumed, even though recent opinion polls indicate diminishing support for Brexit and 73 percent believing the negotiations are going very badly. Whatever happens with this Brexit breakdance, the country will be left reeling. 

  • Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding (CAABU). He has worked with the council since 1993 after graduating with a first-class honors degree in Arabic and Islamic studies at Exeter University. Twitter: @Doylech