Central Europe's central concern

Bulgaria, which is perhaps the poorest member of the EU, also has the dubious distinction of topping the list of nations with the fastest-shrinking populations.

The country, which has a population of 7.2 million, has lost more than a million of its people to migration since it joined the EU in 2007, as Bulgarians took advantage of free movement within the union to leave in search of better-paying jobs elsewhere. According to UN forecasts, if the trend continues the country will have barely 5 million people by 2050.

Bulgaria’s experience is replicated across Eastern and Central Europe, where the 10 countries with the fastest-shrinking populations in the world can be found. Most are affected by sharply declining fertility rates and high rates of emigration.

The countries in the region have adopted a variety of strategies in an attempt to overcome the challenges posed by declining populations, including severe shortages of workers that are seriously hurting their economies.

Hungary, where the population has fallen below 10 million, has taken a stance against migration, at least overtly. Extreme right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban has locked horns with the EU by rejecting immigration. Instead, he is trying to promote a higher birth rate in the country through measures such as tax breaks for families with more than two children and free fertility treatments.

He has also called upon the large Hungarian diaspora to return home to support his efforts to maintain “Hungary’s Christian character” and boost the population through “procreation rather than immigration.”

The effectiveness of Orban’s measures remains highly dubious, as the population continues to decline by about 0.25 percent each year. At the end of last year it fell to just 9.66 million.

Poland, by far the largest country in the region with a population of more than 38 million, has been grappling with a declining population for years. Despite its size, and perhaps because of it, the challenges it faces are particularly severe.

Since joining the EU in 2004, Poland has lost a large chunk of its population to emigration, with more than 900,000 Poles moving to the UK alone. Large numbers also moved to work in other large EU economies, most notably Germany, which has outsourced a large chunk of its manufacturing activities to companies in Poland.

Poland has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of EU membership. Not only has it received hundreds of billions of euros in financial assistance to develop infrastructure and the country, it has also been the best-performing EU economy for well over a decade, growing almost twice as fast as the rest of the EU. This economic boom has led to creation of millions of jobs, but the large-scale emigration threatens to halt progress as a result of an extreme shortage of skilled workers.

Though Poland is also governed by a right-wing, nationalist party, Law and Justice (PiS), the country is considering immigration as a possible solution to the challenges it faces — and seems to have opened the floodgates all of a sudden.

Until a decade ago, only about 100,000 people living in Poland were born outside the country. By 2018, it was home to more than 2 million Ukranians who fled the civil war and deep economic recession that have plagued their country for more than a decade. Poland has also attracted immigrants from other nearby countries, including Belarus and fellow EU members Bulgaria and Romania.

The right-wing PiS found it easier to accept migrants from neighboring European nations because there are cultural similarities and the languages are also similar. However, the growing need for skilled and unskilled workers cannot be fulfilled only by European migrants. Therefore the country has been forced to look further afield.

In the past three years, it has “imported” nearly 60,000 South Asians, most notably Indians, Nepalese and Bangladeshis, who bring with them strong cultural and religious traditions that set them apart from the rest of the country and, indeed, the continent.

So far, Poland has been able to manage this migration because the numbers are relatively small. But the demand for workers in the future will be much greater and soon it will run out of available migrants from other European nations, most of whom are now able to cherry-pick the best employment options in EU nations such as Germany or France.

PiS has tried to provide incentives for Poles to have bigger families, including as much as 125 euros ($133) a month in child support for each child, and a number of tax breaks for parents with larger families.

Despite this, few Polish women are opting to halt their careers and raise families, and meanwhile the emigration of highly-skilled Poles continues unabated, fueling an ever-greater decline in the country’s population. But PiS, or any other party, does not really have the option of simply allowing millions of Indians, or immigrants from any other country, to simply walk in without fearing that it might provoke a strong backlash, especially from Poles in rural areas in particular, who feel their culture and traditions are threatened by “outsiders.”

The Polish government’s options are limited to keeping migration and migrants as invisible as possible, and using smart management — and smarter communication — to reassure the native population that its culture and traditions will be protected.

That is a tough ask for any leader, however popular. Can PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski measure up to the task?

* Ranvir Nayar is the editor of Media India Group, a global platform based in Europe and India that encompasses publishing, communication and consultation services.