The Lebanese Forces and Kataeb Party decided to boycott the parliamentary plenary session scheduled for Thursday. The main reason was to protest Speaker Nabih Berri’s refusal to allow a debate on a proposed amendment to the electoral law that would allow Lebanese citizens living abroad to vote in all 128 seats in the 2026 elections, rather than being restricted to six specific seats as currently legislated. The Christian parties’ goal was to block the session’s quorum, the most-used tactic in Lebanese parliamentary votes and which has already blocked parliamentary progress since September. The diaspora vote issue highlights the sectarian divide the current political system creates.

More than 225,000 expatriates were registered across 59 countries for the last elections in 2022. This was nearly a threefold increase from 2018. If we analyze these figures, we notice that the largest concentrations are in France, the UAE, the US, Canada and Australia. But it is not their country of residence or adoption that matters — it is their voting patterns.

Diaspora votes are mostly influenced by sect. Expatriates mostly vote for change candidates and that is more prominent among Christian, Sunni and Druze voters than within the Shiite diaspora. So, we understand why the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb are in direct opposition to Hezbollah and Amal. The unleashing of this pro-reform momentum, from six parliament seats to 128, represents a clear loss of influence and power for the latter. This is why Berri’s goal is to isolate these voters into what has been referred to as a “diaspora district” to preserve the domestic status quo — or domestic chaos to be more accurate.

A sectarian political system that needs to keep a constant balance is an invitation for foreign meddling

Khaled Abou Zahr

The proposed change to the diaspora vote, which is a legitimate request from the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb, shows Lebanon’s persistent and deep national divide. Although the justification is not the same, it is in a way the same root issue as granting Lebanese rights to the Palestinians who established themselves in the country in the 1960s, as this broke the balance between the various sectarian groups.

A sectarian political system that needs to keep a constant balance is not only a recipe for sclerosis and stagnation, but also an invitation for foreign meddling and potentially violent shows of force. Each group looks for support to gain an advantage over the other. This was the essence of the role of Hezbollah’s arsenal until the last Israeli military intervention, which rendered it obsolete.

It is now clear that Lebanon needs to go beyond the expatriate vote and work an election law into the design of a new political system. In short, Lebanon needs to move towards its second republic, or Taif 2.0. Hopefully it will not need five constitutions like France, its original sponsor, to find stability.

The time is now, as all international supporters have concluded that the current system does not work. US envoy Tom Barrack said it bluntly last month: “Lebanon is a failed state.” And indeed it is. It is operational thanks to the resourcefulness of its people, who have learned to bypass the government, but this cannot be sustained in a highly volatile geopolitical and economic environment.

The Lebanese people need to demand the establishment of a new political system. I maintain that at the top of the list should be a federation. Although this is not a bulletproof solution, much more must be done to find stability. This would at least put the right foundations in place. It would also avoid the current blockages caused by sectarian positions, such as the one surrounding the expatriate vote. Letting the people solve their problems and establish their own rules at the local level would dissipate problems and, I am convinced, bring the Lebanese closer together.

Lebanon is not an independent state. It is still hooked into the regional balances of power, which hold it on a leash

Khaled Abou Zahr

We must also recognize that, if it were not for the Christian Lebanese, there would not be the same nationalistic attachment that is growing today within other communities, such as the Sunnis. They have made Lebanon special. We need to recognize this and celebrate it — and this is the core of the expatriate vote issue. The Christians planted the seed of love for the nation. As a Sunni, I am happy to see today’s youth from across religious beliefs share and celebrate short videos of Bashir Gemayel’s declarations of courage and love for Lebanon. We must also never forget history and who killed him, along with so many other fighters for independence.

We must understand that Lebanon is still not an independent state. It is still hooked into the regional balances of power, which hold it on a leash, not to mention the chains of its sectarian political system. A new political system is the only way to free it and let it thrive, and federalism is the only solution.

Lebanese must also be aware that the clock is ticking. Let us remember that Barrack also said that the Lebanese army will not be able to disarm Hezbollah. Moreover, in the summer, he warned that “if Lebanon does not move, it will return to Bilad Al-Sham.” This remark clearly implies that if Lebanon does not solve its issues, it is at risk of falling under Syria’s influence once again. Even worse for Lebanon, some interpreted it as being reabsorbed into a larger Syrian identity.

The new leadership in Damascus is busy stabilizing its own territory and is genuine in its support for the future of Lebanon. Unfortunately, Hezbollah’s actions could become an invitation for interference. This is why the real debate should be focused on a new political system that would bring a solution to all the current risks. The easiest way forward is through a shift toward a federation, preserving each community’s interests and decision-making while binding them under the Lebanese flag.

  • Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.