Disappearing glaciers a severe threat to humanity

From the Alps to the Himalayas, it has been a rather brown winter so far, as snowfall has been rare and far below normal levels, which is becoming a pattern. Ski resorts across Europe are idling in the absence of snow, leaving prebooked skiers feeling cheated.

While this may be the most consumer-facing aspect of the dramatic changes in the high-altitude ecosystems around the world, there is a more severe and less-reported change going on — often behind the mighty peaks or in less-accessible areas — that is set to pose a life-and-death threat to humanity: Disappearing glaciers.

For more than two decades, scientists have cautioned that numerous glaciers are retreating around the world due to global warming, but no heed has been paid, even though the declining number of snow days in most ski resorts is a good enough indication as to what has been happening in mountainous ecosystems globally.

Now, a comprehensive study of more than 215,000 glaciers around the world published in the journal Science says that 68 percent of the planet’s glaciers are set to disappear by the turn of the century if global warming continues at the current pace. The report says that many of the smaller but more well-known glaciers are headed for extinction.

Taking into account the current greenhouse gas emissions trajectory, the world is set to reach a catastrophic temperature rise of 2.7 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. This, warns the report, would lead to losing 32 percent of global glacier mass, which means 48.5 trillion tons of ice and 68 percent of all glaciers melting. Such a large quantity of ice melting would lead to a rise of 11.5 cm in the average sea level around the world. Add to this warmer water, due to the rise in ambient temperatures and not just human civilization, and much of the flora and fauna that is either in the world’s oceans or is dependent upon them for survival will also face existential threats.

This portends a terrible fate for many coastal regions and island states around the world, which have been facing increasing erosion and submergence and are set to pay a far heavier price in the decades to come.

The threat is not limited to rising sea levels, however. Glaciers are the single biggest source of fresh water on Earth, accounting for 69 percent of the total available. Many of the largest rivers originate from or are supplied by glaciers and, if the glaciers die, many of the rivers will follow suit.

This pattern was partly seen across Europe and North America last summer, as many of the mightiest rivers dried up for the first time in a century or even ever. The situation is similarly catastrophic in Asia and the Middle East, where glacier-fed rivers are carrying far less water each year. As groundwater levels in many of these regions are already extremely low due to gross wastage and unplanned usage, the dried-up rivers will have a widespread impact on the lives of more than 3.5 billion people.

However, like with most such scientific studies, there is a way out and it is not difficult to imagine what it might be: Cut greenhouse gas emissions. Not tomorrow, but today. But the question is, will the world’s leaders take heed and start to build a better future for themselves and the coming generations?

The study on glaciers says that, if the world could limit future warming to just a few more tenths of a degree, instead of going all the way to 2.7 C, and also fulfill international goals, then slightly less than half of the globe’s glaciers would disappear, meaning a good 20 percent could be saved.

Unfortunately, this has been the fundamental recommendation of dozens of studies around the world over the past two decades, with each report presenting ever more desperate scenarios. However, not much has come of them, as emissions and global warming have kept rising.

As usual, the primary responsibility for cutting emissions lies with the developed world, which continues to emit five to eight times more carbon dioxide per capita than the developing world. There are enough technologies and good practices available right now to implement these recommendations and move toward a more sustainable world.

But the situation has not shown any improvement. The year 2021 saw a massive jump in emissions over the pandemic-hit 2020 and, in 2022, the world is sure to have exceeded all records in terms of emissions, as the energy crisis and high inflation led many countries to go big on coal, which is by far the dirtiest fuel. Unfortunately, many of these countries are in Europe, such as Germany and the UK, which have gone back on their stated policies to remove coal from their energy mix and have even planned to open new mines.

As the Russia-Ukraine war continues to drag on, taking the slightly greener option of Russian gas away from European homes, and with oil and gas prices still running high, coal usage is set to rise in 2023, ensuring that greenhouse gas emissions do the same. Europe also has its limitations on greener power sources like hydropower, as falling water levels have led to a drop in production capacity, making some nations move even more strongly to coal.

The solution is not difficult to see. The only way greenhouse gas emissions will go down is for consumption, especially power consumption, to be reduced — and that calls for a rapid change in our lifestyles, especially in the rich nations, where it is perfectly possible to cut consumption levels without any damaging effects. The same formula cannot be applied to developing countries, or at least most of them, as large proportions of their population are still deprived of essentials like housing, power, water and food, let alone the luxuries of life that are commonplace in the rich world. It is high time that the rich world took its responsibilities seriously and acted.

• Ranvir S. Nayar is managing editor of Media India Group.