Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has until now enjoyed the sort of career that most politicians in democracies can only dream of. This former mayor of Istanbul who founded his Justice and Development Party (AKP) while in jail in 2001 for his avowedly Islamist political stance, has gone on to lead his party to three successive election victories, each time securing a greater popular mandate, which has allowed him to govern without the need of coalition partners.

Moreover, he has presided over the most substantial and sustained period of economic growth in the Turkish Republic since its foundation 90 years ago this coming October. Turkey now bids fair to become one of the world’s top ten economies. The EU, which once happily confined the country to a low-level Association Agreement, is now itself anxious to find a way to include it as a full member.

Even Erdogan’s political opponents from the discredited center-right parties acknowledge the success of his statecraft. By careful and patience diplomacy, he has brought an end to 27 years of PKK terrorist insurrection in eastern Turkey, caused the PKK units to withdraw into Iraq and has persuaded dubious legislators, including some within his own party, to embrace a far greater inclusion of Kurdish language and culture within society, along with a stronger political voice for Kurdish parties. In time, the final part of the deal he cut with PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan may well be the release of the Ocalan himself from his life sentence.

However, perhaps Erdogan’s greatest achievement has been the blunting of the military’s role in politics. The Republic’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk was a soldier and the army always saw itself as the keeper of his republican and secular inheritance. It, therefore, felt free to intervene four times to overthrow elected governments, because it claimed the country was falling into political chaos and division and it had to protect the Kemalist legacy.

In 2007, alarmed at what they claimed was the Islamisation of the country, the generals planned a further intervention. Erdogan outmanoeuvred the plotters before they could act. A purge of senior officers followed and the military is now quiescent, if not indeed entirely resigned to its subordinate role, as servants of the constitution and the executive.

Along with all these signal successes, indeed as part and parcel of his impressive record, Erdogan has become an increasingly influential player on the world stage. He has raised Turkish influence and involvement in the Arab world to a high level. Turkish contractors are now building major projects throughout the MENA region and Turkish products and consumer goods crowd the shelves in Arab countries. Egypt and Tunisia, both fresh from their Arab springs, each look to Erdogan’s moderate Islamic rule as a guide for their own political development.

Therefore, it has to be asked how such a sure-footed and clever politician could allow his administration to crash into a burning wall of political opposition, over something as mundane as the building of a shopping mall in one of Istanbul’s all-too-few open spaces? The scheme itself was bound to be controversial. Yet from the get go, Erdogan, perhaps because of his past political connection with the city, chose to take an upfront role in its proposal. When peaceful protesters occupied Istanbul’s main square in Taksim, Turkish police, never renowned for their kid glove approach, went in with batons, tear gas and water cannon. This changed the whole complexion of the protest and lit touch papers of protest throughout the country. Instead of regretting the police violence, Erdogan lambasted the demonstrators and merely inflamed the situation. What began as a large objection to the loss of a city park, was transformed into something resembling a national uprising.

Erdogan’s many admirers have wondered in the past few days how such a subtle, patient and indeed conciliatory politician could allow himself to become so intemperate and in so doing, turn the streets of the country’s commercial capital into a blazing battleground, pictures of which have been flashed around the world.

It is only now, that his government is trying to defuse the tension by suggesting a referendum could be held over the park proposal. This may perhaps puncture the balloon of protest. However, it has to be suspected that there are other forces at work here, other than middle class Turks who want to protect an open space and probably feel uncomfortable with the mild Islamic policies that Erdogan has introduced. If this is true, then it must be said that the Turkish leader has played into their hands by his initial furious reactions.