Hungary leader Orban testing EU principles

Is Hungary journeying inexorably toward being a democracy of one? On March 11, Orban declared a state of emergency in Hungary. He can now rule by decree until the crisis ends — a situation that can only be overturned by a two-thirds majority in the Hungarian Parliament. Fidesz, Orban’s party, has already sewn up such a majority so, in theory, he could maintain this dictatorship ad infinitum. Another measure was a new law stipulating prison terms for those spreading false news about the virus outbreak, which is a recipe for abuse by any power-hungry leadership. The media in Hungary was already intimidated enough without this extra incentive. Indeed, Orban has been building up his power base for years and is an advocate of illiberal democracy. In 2010, he declared: “We have only to win once, but then properly.”

How will Hungarians react? Some may be content with this tradeoff between rights and security given the nature of the crisis. Indeed, other states in Europe have accumulated more powers during the pandemic, but not to the same extent as Hungary. Hungarians are not all being submissive, with more than 109,000 people signing a petition against the Orban power grab. This will not trouble the prime minister yet. As long as the people are in lockdown and are worried about their health, opposition may be muted domestically. The challenge will come when the lockdown ends and social distancing is canceled. The pressure will surge. Orban may well have to give up these powers but, during the intervening weeks, his vice-like grip on Hungary’s institutions can be further tightened. Opponents can be locked up for spreading fake news. State assistance can be directed to his cronies and favorites. Not all the decrees he issues now will be annulled later. But it could also get seriously ugly. Who will support Hungarian protesters if Orban adopts heavy-handed tactics?

One thing is pretty much guaranteed: His plan will be to have significantly more powers at the end of the crisis than at the beginning. That said, Orban will be judged on how he handles the crisis. If he is lucky, the outbreak will not hit Hungary as hard as countries like Italy and Spain. As of Monday, Hungary had reported 744 cases and 38 deaths. Should the crisis be mishandled, there will only be one person to blame.

The right-wing culture battle continues apace regardless of the pandemic. The Hungarian education system is set to promote anti-Semitic writers and laud the great deeds from the country’s past, while exorcizing from textbooks its defeats. Orban wants children to learn about the authoritarian rule of Hitler ally Miklos Horthy, who dominated Hungary from 1920 to 1944. This onslaught on the independence of schools comes after Orban forced the Central European University out of the country just because it was funded by philanthropist George Soros, himself a Jew.

The EU has thus far ducked its Orban problem. European leaders no longer have this luxury if they are to maintain the bloc as a union of democratic liberal states. If Orban gets away with this, then others are bound to follow. This will be a terrific boon to other populist leaders who are aching to acquire similar powers. For example, Orban is a big fan of Italy’s former Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, who he last year described as the “most important person in Europe today.”

The early signs are not promising. The EU barely gets out of first gear at the best of times, and Orban will have calculated that the coronavirus crisis will clog up Brussels’ decision-making processes. He can also count on support from states such as Poland, which will limit the EU’s options.

The EU could in theory suspend Hungary or reduce its membership benefits under Article 7 of the Treaty of Lisbon. This can be triggered if there is a “clear risk” that a member state is breaching the EU’s fundamental values. Orban knows this will be blocked. Only 13 EU states signed up to a statement critical of Orban’s move last week, none of which were from Eastern Europe. In the European Parliament, Fidesz is under pressure, with many wanting to see the Hungarian party expelled from the European People’s Party (EPP) bloc, not just suspended as it was last year. But, even here, EPP leader Donald Tusk has said this must be reconsidered and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is also in the EPP, has yet to make a statement. Orban will not be sweating yet.

A more viable route would be to slash Hungary’s financial allocations from Brussels, or at least attach significant conditionality to future payments. Orban cannot ignore this as he needs EU cash, which amounts to about 4 percent of his country’s gross domestic product, but he may also reason that other states will dislike the precedent and fear that one day it could happen to them if Brussels becomes the bully.

Much is at stake for the EU. It needs to demonstrate that it will stick to its core values, while also running an effective coronavirus campaign that reminds member states of the benefits of cooperation. Orban has tested these limits and who knows who will follow him, not least as the European economies head into a major recession.

• Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding. Twitter: @Doylech