In the fragmented Israeli political system, battling for every vote and every seat in the Knesset can make a huge difference. Moreover, this always leads us to expect that someone from somewhere will pull a rabbit out of the hat at the last minute to sway undecided voters to vote for their party.
This might still happen in the short time left until the elections on Tuesday, although so far we have mainly been witnessing a vile and unsubstantiated smear campaign, carried out in the dark alleyways of social media by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies, against the new contender to replace him, former military chief of staff Benny Gantz.
If the opinion polls are correct, and unless there is a last-minute change, the Likud party led by Netanyahu will form the next government. If so it will be, staggeringly, the current prime minister’s fifth administration. It will also confirm the alarming phenomenon of the Israeli electorate continuing to veer to the right, with some very ultra-right-wing elements likely to take key positions in such a government.
What is more, it will be further evidence of the public’s apathy in the face of corruption at the heart of the Israeli governing body. With Likud predicted to gain about half of the seats required to form a majority government, a coalition government might require the support of, most probably, six small parties, ranging from the center-right Kulanu to ultra-orthodox, far-right and messianic parties. Such a government could only prevail on an agenda that promotes the deepening occupation of the West Bank and the blockade of Gaza, continues to erode Israel’s democratic institutions and processes — in particular the Supreme Court — and carries on with economic policies that will increase social inequalities.
The 2019 elections are at the same time similar and yet very different to previous ones. Traditionally, new parties or political alliances tend to form close to polling day. They claim to present alternatives to those parties that already reside in the deep and murky waters of Israeli politics. Habitually, the main appeal of these parties lies in their novelty value; they are more about new faces than new ideas and principles. In many cases they are like shooting stars, shining brightly for one election and then disappearing altogether in the next or returning with considerably fewer seats.
The newly formed alliance of the Blue and White (Kahol Lavan) brought together Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, a party that only two elections ago broke into the Israeli consciousness as the surprise newcomers, with Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz and two other former chiefs of staff. As much as Netanyahu does his very best to portray this party as leftist, it is at best a center-right formation, with an agenda that strongly emphasizes security and resistance to religious coercion by government legislation. This alliance cannot remotely be defined as leftist, either on socioeconomic matters or in relations with the Palestinians.
The Labor Party and Meretz, together with the two Arab parties, the United Arab List-Balad and Hadash-Ta’al, are expected to win just over 20 percent of the vote. All this leads to the conclusion that, realistically, any government formed in the aftermath of these elections will be a rather hawkish one with a free-market outlook.
From the moment Netanyahu was indicted on counts of corruption, it was obvious that this master manipulator of Israeli politics would embark on an election campaign that will not only determine whether he can survive politically for another term, but would also do his best to avoid facing the judgment of the court.
Yossi Mekelberg
And then there is the issue of corruption that hangs over Netanyahu and some of those close to him. From the moment the prime minister was indicted on counts of corruption, it was obvious that this master manipulator of Israeli politics would embark on an election campaign that will not only determine whether he can survive politically for another term, but would also do his best to avoid facing the judgment of the court and, if found guilty, a possible jail sentence for crimes of bribery, fraud and breach of trust that are unprecedented in their severity.
The three tracks of his campaign are: firstly, to play the innocent victim of a conspiracy against him by the left and the media; secondly, to incite hatred against the Palestinian citizens of Israel, presenting himself as the bulwark to prevent them from participating in the government; and thirdly, to act like the international statesman who operates on equal terms with the leaders of some of the world’s biggest powers.
Netanyahu is clearly a natural in a world of populism and right-wing politics, which helps him to develop his statesmanlike credentials. Within a matter of days his election campaign was boosted by US President Donald Trump, who announced his country’s recognition of Israel’s annexation of the occupied Golan Heights and followed it up by signing the presidential proclamation during Netanyahu’s visit to Washington just two weeks before Israel’s elections.
This was followed by a visit to Israel by Brazil’s newly elected populist president Jair Bolsonaro, and last week the Israeli prime minister found himself invited to Moscow for a summit meeting. It is hardly surprising, and certainly no coincidence, that these like-minded leaders are supporting Netanyahu and his policies.
Opinion polls must always be taken with a pinch of salt, yet it seems likely that Israel will continue to be ruled by a right-wing government and, what is worse, one operating under the increasing influence of its most extreme elements. This can only result in peace with the Palestinians becoming at best a very remote possibility. The likely prominent members of the next government support an even tougher policy on Gaza, while others advocate annexation of parts of the West Bank, and even taking over the Temple Mount, with all the grave consequences such actions might provoke.
Moreover, it would also be a religious government, one that would rather look for legal remedies in the Halacha than the Declaration of Independence or the democratic constitutional arrangements that have evolved since the founding of the country. In this way Israel will drift farther away from the more enlightened elements in the international community that adhere to and respect human rights and international law.
Is this really what Israel’s voters want for their country? They should think very seriously about this, and with a sense of great responsibility, before they cast their votes.
- Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg
