When Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye signed the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement on Aug. 7, the three countries provided concrete evidence of a push toward regional strategic autonomy — new alignments that augment, but do not replace, existing security arrangements dealing with heightened threats.

The deal had been under discussion for several years, but its signing came during one of the most complicated armed conflicts the region has witnessed — a war that is taking place in a key energy corridor, appears to have no end in sight, and is affecting the world economy in ways not seen since the energy crisis of 1973-74.

The agreement combines three elements: diplomacy, defense, and deterrence. The signatories are charting a new path toward addressing the current crisis and restoring regional security through that triangular combination. They have indicated that the agreement is open to additional members who share their commitment to the principles of the new alliance.

At the heart of the agreement is a collective defense covenant: An external armed attack on any of the three countries is an attack on all. It has multiple objectives — to defend its members, deter their adversaries, and thus ensure peace, security, and stability in the region. There is no doubt that the conflict has affected this region’s reputation as a hospitable business environment that benefits its people and the rest of the world. By prioritizing diplomacy, bolstering defense, and deterring aggression, the agreement seeks to spur recovery and restore confidence in the region’s ability to resume that vital economic role.

Pakistan is close to finalizing its deal with the GCC

Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

The new alliance is formidable in political, economic, and defense terms. Saudi Arabia has a most important leadership role in the Islamic and Arab worlds. For millennia, it has served as a trade and cultural link between Asia, Africa, and Europe, and is now the leader of the largest energy grouping. Turkiye is heir to a 600-year empire, geographically straddles Asia and Europe with the second-largest army in NATO, and is a military industry leader. Pakistan is a nuclear power, with a formidable conventional military and a prime strategic location. The armed forces of the three countries exceed 2 million in active duty, with more than 1,000 fighter jets, 7,000 tanks, and 90,000 armored cars.

The three members have a combined population of more than 380 million and a land area in excess of 3.7 million sq. km, rich in resources. Their combined gross domestic product is about $3.5 trillion, making it the seventh-largest economy globally if integrated in a single trading market. Both Pakistan and Turkiye have been in negotiations over free trade with the Gulf Cooperation Council, of which Saudi Arabia is the largest member. Pakistan is close to finalizing its deal with the GCC and when the deal with Turkiye is agreed, there will be a large free trading area from the Indus River to the Arabian Peninsula and Bosphorus.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan likened the mutual defense stipulated in the new alliance to NATO’s Article 5. While the principle of collective defense is agreed by all members, fulfillment of that commitment takes place through a consultative process in both cases. When a member is subjected to an external attack, it decides how to respond and what assistance it needs from other members. The request is then discussed by the organization, and a consensus decision made on how to respond to the aggression and the assistance members will offer. Diplomatic support may be what is needed — in the form of a UN Security Council resolution, for example. It could be mediation. Or it may be intelligence, surveillance, logistical support or ammunition. If the aggression continues, the attacked member may ask for deployment of forces.

NATO provides an example of an enduring defense and political organization. As is the case with NATO, the new alliance will have a secretariat, in this case based in Saudi Arabia, with foreign and defense ministers from the three countries overseeing operations. NATO was established in 1949 amid early signs of the Cold War, but it was the outbreak of the Korean War the following year that helped solidify its operations and promote solidarity between members. For three years, from 1949 to 1952, the alliance worked without a secretariat, with member states handling the bureaucratic burden.

However, the urgent security challenges in the Middle East region may push the signatories of the Makkah Mutual Defense Agreement to move faster than NATO in setting up institutions and formalizing modalities.

The agreement will strengthen regional security

Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

There is no question that the signing of the agreement is an important, even historic, event, and it is important to heed the declarations made by its leaders. The pact is meant to defend its member states and its purpose is to deter aggression, so that force does not have to used and mutual defense clauses in the treaty do not have to be invoked. But the alliance is not directed at a particular country or group, as the three countries have highlighted. 

It is also a mistake to think of the establishment of this group as a replacement for the US-led security order in the region, or to the 45-year-old GCC military alliance, or the strategic partnerships the three countries have with China and others. It should be seen as a significant addition to augment existing arrangements.

Activities of the new alliance are expected to include joint exercises, training and capacity building, logistical support, intelligence sharing, military industry, and maritime security. These could be helped by taking advantage of existing defense arrangements, including the GCC military and political institutions; the US-led Combined Maritime Forces; and the recently established and Saudi-led Multinational Maritime Alliance, which Pakistan and Turkiye have joined as founding members on July 30.

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye each enjoy close relations with the US, China, and other great powers. Those strong ties are not mutually exclusive with each other or with the new alliance.

Amid heightened security threats and a desire to reduce long-term reliance on outside powers, the Makkah Mutual Defense Agreement is intended to strengthen regional security and support defense burden-sharing. The pact will also strengthen the bargaining power of the three countries, but is not meant to replace or end existing partnerships.

  • Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation. The views expressed here are personal and do not necessarily represent those of the GCC. X: @abuhamad1