Monitoring the health of the US political ‘center’

As the Democratic primary to determine which candidate will run against Donald Trump in the 2020 elections heats up, Democrats are debating whether their candidate should be a moderate figure or someone further to the left on the political spectrum. As partisanship and polarization have intensified in the US, many Americans wonder whether a political “center” still exists in their country.

The center is a somewhat nebulous but essential idea in American politics. As a two-party democracy, the idea that politicians must appeal to a large group of Americans in the political center in order to win elections has helped keep politics from tacking toward pragmatism. It has usually prevented more extreme figures from gaining power.

The center is often seen as the center point of the political spectrum — the voters who are furthest away from the extremes of both the left and the right. The center is imagined as being pragmatic voters who want their leaders to compromise in order to enact policies that make life a bit better. Centrist voters are seen as preferring functional government over moral absolutes. Another important element of the center is an emphasis on democratic process and principles, including the peaceful transfer of power back and forth between the political parties. While ideologues and those with more extreme views might be ready to go to war with those they disagree with, moderates prefer to make some compromises, figure things out, and move along peacefully.

Of course, the center changes with time. As the parameters of ideological debate in the US shift, so the center of the political spectrum shifts with them. Today’s centrist voter probably has very different views on certain issues than their 1950s equivalent.

It may be difficult to exactly define the center of American politics; nonetheless, it has been the glue that holds the country’s democracy together. The two-party system requires a centrist voter who prevents US politics from breaking down into two ideological, rival parties that refuse to work together. The need for each party to try to appeal to the center has long helped to prevent extremists from gaining significant power. The centrist voter demands that the parties peacefully exchange power, thus preventing one from gaining power and using it to prevent the other party from ever having a chance to govern.

In the wake of the Great Depression, while parts of Europe faced a struggle between fascism and communism — eventually leading to the rise of fascism and the Second World War — the US did not fall prey to the temptations of such extremes. America has not experienced large-scale conflict on its territory since 1865, partly thanks to voters who hold the center and refuse to be tempted by the more ideological extremes.

There are valid critiques about the role of American moderates. When society needs difficult, urgent change — such as during the civil rights era — it is necessary to have people who push the parameters of debate and force moderates to reconsider their assumptions. At the same time, moderate voters and politicians are the force that has kept US democracy working, the government functioning, and the American homeland mostly peaceful.

Today, there are questions about whether the center of American politics is disappearing. There is evidence to support that concern. Pew Research Center polling shows a notable increase from 2000 to 2017 in the percentages of Republican and Democratic voters who identify as ideologically conservative or liberal and a corresponding decrease in the proportion who see themselves as moderates. Gallup polling also shows a clear decline since 1992 in the percentage of Americans who identify as moderates. Democrats who identify as liberal increased from 25 percent in 1994 to 51 percent in 2018, while Republicans who consider themselves conservative increased from 58 percent to 73 percent. Moderates declined in both parties.

Additional factors suggest the decline of political moderates. The election of Donald Trump demonstrated how someone who advocated for some extreme ideas and did not play by the usual rules of the US political system could win. Many politicians increasingly seem to prioritize their party’s victory and their rival’s defeat over realistic legislation. Many Americans who prefer the center increasingly feel forced to pick a side on topics that are highly divisive, such as abortion and immigration. Self-sorting has led fewer Americans to regularly interact with people from the other political “team.”

On the other hand, some central ground remains. Despite a lot of talk about the rise of a more liberal wing in the Democratic Party, in the 2018 midterm elections, moderate Democrats were more likely to win primaries than more progressive candidates and much more likely to win against Republicans in the general election. There are organizations that are trying to advocate for moderate politics, such as Third Way. It is possible that the center is eroding, but it is also possible that the center is simply hard to find at a time when the parameters of the political spectrum are changing.

For the sake of American democracy and a functioning government, it is important that there still are centrist voters and politicians who try to appeal to them. A key indicator of the health of the center will be whether the Democratic Party chooses a centrist figure or a left-wing candidate to compete with Trump.

• Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 14 years’ experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Twitter: @KBAresearch