Opposition a weak threat to government

Pakistan has seen two huge and effective mass movements against governments in 1969 and 1977. However, both of them ended up in military interventions. There is also a history of challenging election results as well. Opposition parties, instead of waiting patiently for the next general elections as per schedule, start demanding new ones. This results in political instability which is inimical to good governance. Mass political movements require huge public participation, sustained over a period of months. They also need credible leadership to rally people around. In 2014, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf's (PTI) Imran Khan had emerged as such a leader who was perceived to be clean and dependable.

Before the present government came into power two years ago, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was disqualified for politics and his family had to face some tough questions about its properties abroad. Loss of power by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in Islamabad to a political foe was a rude shock. Meanwhile, the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) was reduced to regional party but was not yet out of reckoning as it wielded power in Sindh. Leadership of both parties faced corruption charges. Bitter political foes of yesterday thus became friends in adversity. Before the government completed its first year, they were consulting each other about ways and means to oust it. Taking high commodity prices and the resultant public resentment in view, some of the parties’ members thought people would come to the streets. However, their leaders were not fully convinced.

Not very sure of popular response, they decided to remove the government supported the Senate's chairman instead through a no confidence vote. They thought the move would demoralize the government. This goal was achievable as the opposition parties enjoy majority in the upper house. The move backfired as some opposition members sided with the government, in a secret ballot. PML-N thought that some PPP members of the Senate had co-operated with the government in order to curry its favor in accountability cases. That added to the already existing trust deficit between the two major parties.

Smaller parties thought that the main opposition was too soft on the government. Since junior opposition got few seats in 2018 elections, they were keen to have fresh elections. But conducting general elections for one national and four provincial assemblies is a gigantic exercise demanding sizable financial resources and thousands of personnel. Nevertheless, a small religious party that has influence in seminaries staged a sit-in in the capital, asking the government to resign. It was a nuisance for the people as the city's major road remained closed for traffic for many days. The sit-in failed to achieve its goal and its leader still blames major parties for lack of wholehearted support.

A multi-party opposition moot is scheduled for Sept. 20 to chart out a common strategy. PPP will host the meeting but they do not favor fresh elections before 2023. They support in house change which the PML-N does not like. Prime Minister Imran Khan has said it on the floor of the parliament that the "minus-one" formula would not bring any respite for the opposition as far as their corruption cases were concerned. Government leaders also allege that the opposition just wanted to exert pressure with a view to have accountability laws softened. Opposition parties are confused and divided. Their ostensible agenda is different from the real one. More importantly, they do not enjoy enough popular support to bring masses on the roads.

The prime minister has announced a comprehensive package for Karachi. It aims at addressing the drinking water issue, repair sewerage, rebuild circular railway and roads, manage solid waste and clear the city's drains so that rainwater does not accumulate. This Rs1.1 trillion mega project will be completed over a period of three years. The federal government, provincial government and the army will work jointly to complete this ambitious undertaking. Close coordination between the civilian and military establishments in Karachi, China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and other areas gives the PTI government much needed support, as the ruling party has a thin majority in the parliament. Despite that disadvantage, the government has weathered all storms confidently. Its successful tackling of the COVID-19 challenge has been acknowledged internationally.

Both major political parties have leadership issues. Nawaz Sharif is not likely to return to Pakistan anytime soon, while PPP's Asif Ali Zardari, tainted by corruption charges and not too physically fit, cannot lead a mass movement to oust the government. Moreover, their political parties have a sizable presence in parliament. Overturning the power apple cart is not their best option, at this stage. As for the smaller parties, they do not call the shots when it comes to critical decision making. In my assessment, the upcoming multi-party conference will not be able to make any big dent and the incumbents are likely to complete their term.

• Javed Hafeez is a former Pakistani diplomat with much experience of the Middle East. He writes weekly columns in Pakistani and Gulf newspapers and appears regularly on satellite TV channels as a defense and political analyst.

Twitter: @hafiz_javed