It was a clear morning in 2001 and my breakfast guest was a European ambassador. After serving in Islamabad for four years he was on his way out and our conversation inevitably veered toward the future of the Taliban. 

My guest was a strong advocate of the ouster of the Taliban government even through December 2000 UNSC-imposed sanctions which Kofi Annan had warned, threatened the starvation of a million Afghans. In our somewhat heated discussion, I disagreed with my guest. With all their shortcomings, I argued, Taliban were still people of the soil. But our meal ended with the ambassador throwing a graphic gesture into the air, ranting it was time to slaughter those who slaughtered others. The Taliban’s massacre of thousands of Tajiks and Hazaras following their 1998 capture of Mazar-i-Sharif was still fresh in memory.

And yet, whatever the world thought of the Taliban then, 20 years later the Doha agreement is a vindication of the group being an organically linked socio-political entity of Afghanistan. Beyond the Taliban, the agreement has acknowledged Afghanistan as a country with space for all its ethnic groups. 

Clean victory for any single group in Afghanistan, either through the mighty Washington-led NATO military machine, debilitating UN-sanctions, diplomatic censures or the neighborhood Machiavellian games, has not been achieved. 

And so it was that on a leap day last week, after decades seeking a zero-sum, pro or anti-Taliban outcome in Afghanistan, the first step toward a genuinely representative Afghan political setup has been taken. It acknowledges, among other things, the Taliban as a legitimate political force. 

The US-Taliban Doha peace agreement overturns the 2001 Bonn agreement under which the Taliban were excluded from the Karzai-led and Northern Alliance based Interim Authority. Years later, Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN envoy who oversaw the agreement, conceded that keeping the Taliban out was a major blunder.

This first step finally establishes what every Pakistani government since the 90’s has believed; that the Taliban are integral to any Afghan settlement. That for Afghanistan, a genuinely representative home-grown government alone will bring peace and by extension, stability in the region.

Nasim Zehra

The 1979 Soviet Union invasion triggered the birth of the architecture of ongoing war and conflict in Afghanistan. Multiple influencers and direct players in the Afghan context have woven concentric circles around the Afghan state and society and manipulated it at varying degrees. 

Significantly, the two innermost powers located at the core of these concentric circles have been the US and Pakistan. The US by virtue of its men, war-machines and materials and Pakistan because of its contiguous border and as a home to millions of Afghan refugees and militants with military bases. 

The role of these two countries in making the Doha peace deal possible was critical. Washington for its support to the current Kabul set-up and Islamabad because its direct and indirect support to the Taliban alone could create a pact of the willing.

Pakistan exercised pressure on the Taliban leadership. Its security apparatus, including the army chief, facilitated the process of positive engagement between the US and Taliban, and Pakistan has taken steps to initiate the return of the Taliban to their home bases in Afghanistan. The sanctuaries the Taliban enjoyed on Pakistani territory have been greatly reduced. At best, families of some key Taliban leaders continue to be based in Pakistan.

Doha, of course, was the relatively easy part of the two-step Afghan peace process. There, Washington was largely autonomous and calling the shots as a key interlocutor, while Taliban as the other interlocutors, facilitated somewhat by Pakistan, came to straight conclusions: cease-fire, intra-Afghan dialogue, gradual and conditional drawdown by the US, etc.

Doha is significant but only a stepping stone toward possible peace. It does set the context for what matters most; intra-Afghan dialogue, the dialogue which must replace bullet-talk with ballot-talk. The irony is that while at Doha the process is intended to turn inwards, the ability of external players to continue to influence intra-Afghan dialogue remains intact. 

This first step finally establishes what every Pakistani government since the ’90s has believed; that the Taliban are integral to any Afghan settlement. That for Afghanistan, a genuinely representative home-grown government alone will bring peace and by extension, stability in the region.

How best can Pakistan play and be seen to play a positive role in ensuring peace in Afghanistan? By making clear that Pakistan holds no cards in intra-Afghan dialogue. The dialogue promises to be complicated on issues ranging from power-sharing, the constitution, absorbing of militants, women’s rights, etc. And the dynamics of intra-Afghan competitiveness which involve the influence of countries like Iran and India, Ashraf Ghani, Dostum, Karzai, Taliban and others cannot be influenced by Pakistan. Pakistan shoulders no responsibility. The core spoilers or competitors here are Ashraf Ghani, Abdullah Abdullah, and other players.

What role an India in trouble plays in the situation is anyone’s guess. There is much for Delhi to gain as matters get messy in Afghanistan. In the US too, election 2020 will generate many severe critics to Trump’s US-Afghan peace deal.

Pakistan best stays aloof while keeping its channels of communication open with principal interlocutors of the peace process: the Americans. Pakistan now needs to upgrade its US channel of communication from the State Department level to the level of Secretary of State. At this critical juncture, this will prevent middle-man misunderstandings creeping into Pakistan-US strategic communications over the Afghan peace process.

In the last one year, Pakistan, through transparent engagement with Washington, and to the extent that a Ghani government fighting for survival has allowed, has earned the dividend of trust and goodwill in the Afghan peace process. Now it is this reputation that Pakistan needs to keep undamaged as Afghans begin their messy intra-Afghan process. Many, unsurprisingly, will be looking to blame Pakistan.

*Nasim Zehra is an author, analyst and national security expert.