Of all the theaters of conflict in the Middle East, perhaps the most predictable might now be Israel-Palestine. Writing these words will immediately put the mockers on this article, but the actors in this field appear more consistent and less changeable than those in Syria, Yemen or Libya. 

All of this is relative. Put aside his legal travails and 2018 could hardly be bettered for Benjamin Netanyahu; it was perhaps a great year for the prevailing far-right Israeli Jewish elite, largely courtesy of US President Donald Trump. The US opened an embassy in Jerusalem. The US nixed the Iran nuclear deal. The US defunded UNRWA and challenged the whole mandate of the UN institution tasked with looking after 5 million Palestinian refugees. New relationships have taken off and warmer ties with Gulf states led to Netanyahu’s visit to Oman in October.

Yet the April 9 elections will be no walkover for a man aiming for his fifth election victory. Israeli parties are fracturing and reforming in the run up to the polls, but perhaps the former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Benny Gantz might yet become Netanyahu’s most potent challenger. His opponents are already claiming that this election is all about distracting the electorate from Netanyahu’s imminent indictment for corruption. The Israeli attorney general has to make a decisive call as to whether and when to proceed. Netanyahu believes he should face legal proceedings from a position of strength, with a fresh electoral mandate. 

For Palestinian citizens of Israel, the storms of anti-Arab racism will continue to buffet them. Israel’s nation-state law has confirmed their lowly third-class status. None will need reminding of the chilling comments of Netanyahu at the last election, when he warned of Arabs voting in “droves.”

In the other world of Israel-Palestine, crossing the green line, Palestinians continue to live in a parallel universe, under different legal systems and devoid of national rights. 

Last year was not easy for Palestinians. According to the UN, Israeli forces killed 298 Palestinians and injured more than 29,000 in 2018. This is the highest death toll in a single year since the Gaza conflict of 2014. 

Israeli voters will once again determine who rules over millions of Palestinians who have zero say in the issue, as has happened for more than 50 years. Palestinians know only too painfully that Israeli elections this century have been won by those who promise to deny them freedom and further abuse their human and national rights. Israeli election season has been a race to the bottom in boasting how tough each leader would be in crushing Palestinian aspirations. 

In the other world of Israel-Palestine, crossing the green line, Palestinians continue to live in a parallel universe, under different legal systems and devoid of national rights.

Chris Doyle

In the Israeli right especially, the settlers are rampant. The number of incidents of settler violence rose by 69 percent in 2018 over 2017. Their one dominant disappointment is the temporary failure to have the Palestinian Bedouin community of Khan Al-Ahmar forcibly transferred to make way for the doomsday settlement of Ma’ale Adummim. The Bedouin will be more than a little nervous that Netanyahu will proceed with the demolition of their homes for electoral gain, on the basis that bashing Palestinians wins votes. 

In Gaza, Palestinians still living under blockade suffered their most deadly onslaught for four years in 2018. The major cuts to UNRWA will affect Gaza, where 70 percent are refugees, and although UNRWA successfully covered the shortfall in funding in 2018, it will be harder in 2019 as donor interest falls off. 

Palestinian politics remains weak and divided. The fingernails of President Mahmoud Abbas have been sorely tested as he clings on to power. Faced with a rampant Israeli right and a capricious US president, the Palestinian leader has few options but to hold tight and wait out Trump, though this may not be enough for a man whose whole platform had centered on negotiations. Whilst many Palestinians might desire it, a genuine Fatah-Hamas rapprochement seems far off. 

Will we witness the dawn of Trump’s “deal of the century” in 2019? If this as yet mythical magical plan is released into reality, the chances are it will be the steal of the century, with Israel being given the backing for mopping up most of the West Bank, adding to the 61 percent it already totally controls as Area C. 

Trump has paid lip service to making peace in the Middle East, whereas the reality is he appears desperate not to get bogged down in the region. His decision to pull troops out of Syria will sit uneasy with Israel, and Israeli nerves will have been frayed by Trump’s statement that: “I told Bibi, you know we give Israel $4.5 billion a year. And they are doing very well at defending themselves.” Could Trump pull a few more dramas from his hat? Perhaps — although the obvious ones have been plucked. Having kicked the Palestine Liberation Organization out of Washington, he may well try to get it declared a terrorist organization. 

The Israel-Palestinian conflict is trapped, waiting for one or more major changes. Who knows if in 2019 we shall see some, like the departure of Netanyahu? That alone will not be enough unless combined with the downfall of the Israeli right and the death of the settler project. Can the Palestinian political house get itself in order; the Fatah-Hamas rift be healed; or fresh political leadership emerge? 

Absent the above, 2019 will see another year of daily attritional conflict and dispossession. The outlook for Palestinians is unlikely to be far different to the New Year outlook 12, 24 or 36 months ago. The unrelenting nature of foreign military rule and metastasizing occupation will make their quest for freedom appear ever more difficult. 

•  Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding (CAABU). Twitter: @Doylech