Regardless of the intensity of the demonstrations in Sudan that were sparked by the lifting of fuel subsidies, Sudan has entered a political crisis that had been simmering for quite some time. The new dimension of this crisis is that it has affected the ruling National Congress Party (NCP), the heir of the Islamic Movement that brought President Omar Bashir to power almost quarter a century ago.
A memo — attributed to some 30 key figures within the party — is indicative of a tug of war within the party. The memo called on the party members to search for a political solution to the current problems by engaging with other forces and to take to task those responsible for the deaths of around 30 demonstrators over the past week.
Another indication of a political crisis is the banning of a number of Khartoum dailies and closure of offices of a number of regional and international media houses.
Sudan has an old tradition of standing up to military regimes. In fact twice before Sudanese people toppled two military regimes back in 1964 and two decades later, years before what is now known as Arab Spring.
The military made two attempts to takeover the country but failed. It succeeded only in its third attempt led by Bashir in 1989 and supported by fundamentalists. This support to Bashir help them gain ground in the country.
The myopic vision of the fundamentalists has failed to put Sudan on the road to success and revealed their inability to rule. Moreover, a typical power struggle led to a split between the regime’s ideologue Hassan al-Turabi and the military wing led by Bashir. As expected the one in control of the army and the state machinery usually gains the upper hand. The military, eventually, assumed a dominant role and the fundamentalists were marginalized. Though the regime still claim to be ruling the country in their name. It has become quite clear now that the military calls the shots and the fundamentalists are just providing the necessary cover.
But with growing talk on corruption, failure to address political problems, the separation of South Sudan and the loss of more than two third of the country’s known oil reserves because of that separation, the situation has become untenable even to Islamists’ supporters.
The situation aggravated when late last year, a well-known military group tried to overthrow the government in a coup led by former spy chief Salah Gosh and Brig. (retd.) Mohamed Ibrahim. Interestingly, charges against both the men were dropped and they are currently campaigning for political reforms in the country.
The failure of the regime to punish accused of “sedition” clearly shows that there are cracks within the party and that there are no avenues to express opinion and help push for change.
When the regime decided to take the tough measures of lifting subsidies, many within the party expressed their opposition. In the end it was left to Bashir to try to convince the Sudanese people on the need for these measures.
The lifting of fuel subsidies led to a spontaneous eruption of protests of which the opposition made good use. However, it is yet to be seen whether the muted criticism within the NCP will transform into a real pressure to force the regime for serious dialogue with the opposition and open ways to end the political crisis or the regime will remain indifferent to the serious issues facing the country.
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