The Afghan peace process observed a number of significant events during the past few months, creating hope for the prospects of a peaceful settlement of the protracted conflict.

One of the most significant signs of progress regarding peace and reconciliation with the Taliban came when the Afghan government announced a nine day unilateral ceasefire, which was reciprocated by the Taliban only for the period of the Eid holidays. Though the truce surprised many, the decision was one of a number of calculated strategic actions taken in the quest for peace and stability in the country.

Last year, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani tackled the peace process by endorsing a new national peace and reconciliation strategy, personally drafting a section of it and assigning a team to lead its implementation. In accordance with the strategy, the High Peace Council, an independent body established to facilitate the peace process, undertook a countrywide consultation with religious scholars, tribal elders, political figures, women, youths, representatives of civil society, media agencies, journalists and intellectuals. The input collected during these sessions formed the foundations for successive interventions with regard to peace and reconciliation, while also helping to establish a nationwide consensus about the peace process.

In an attempt to challenge the Taliban on religious grounds, as religion is used by the Taliban as a basis on which to legitimize their struggle, the government engaged with religious scholars. The Ghani administration sought support from the National Ulema Council, a national body of religious scholars, to analyze the context of the conflict and offer guidance to government leaders. The council organized a gathering of nearly 3,000 religious scholars during which a Fatwa, a religious decree, was issued denouncing the ongoing armed struggle as illegitimate. The Fatwa challenged the religious legitimacy of the fight against the Afghan state and called for a peaceful settlement.

On the diplomatic front, too, Kabul has engaged in robust diplomacy with the US during the past two years. This enhanced level of engagement influenced the Trump administration’s strategy for South Asia, which demanded in no uncertain terms that Pakistan, a country widely recognized as a patron of the Taliban, either contribute to Afghan stability by using its influence over the militants or face isolation.

In the meantime, Kabul revived its diplomatic engagement with Islamabad in an attempt to move on from two years of strained relations. The diplomacy resulted in the development of a new partnership framework rooted in a seven-point agenda agreed between the Afghan president and Pakistani prime minister. The implementation of this framework has already begun and is expected to restrict Taliban mobility around the Durand Line — the line divides between Pakistan and Afghanistan — which will significantly curtail the ability of the group to conduct military interventions in Afghanistan.

Kabul also expanded its engagement with China to garner support for its peace and reconciliation agenda. A number of diplomatic missions traveled to Beijing to mobilize Chinese support. Beijing, which has significant influence over regional stakeholders in the Afghan conflict, has shown a strong desire to support the Afghan peace process. 

Kabul also succeeded in gaining backing from Saudi Arabia for the peace process. The recent statement by King Salman supporting the Eid truce was a result of substantial engagement by the Afghan leadership with Riyadh, which has strong relations with Pakistan and respect among the Taliban. Also, Imams from Makkah and Madinah called for peace in Afghanistan in their sermons during Friday prayers, an unprecedented but significantly important event in terms of influencing the mid-level Taliban leadership.

The bold maneuvers of Kabul have made more gains than recent military action by the Taliban.

Mushtaq Rahim

In addition to the bilateral diplomacy, Kabul’s push for multilateral engagements has also yielded positive results. The Afghan Government hosted the Kabul Process-II in February 2018, which was attended by 26 countries and international organizations. During the meeting, President Ghani offered a comprehensive peace deal to the Taliban. The overture was so comprehensive, in fact, it left the Taliban with limited choices of reaction and so it preferred silence over its usual negative response.

The two-day Tashkent conference in March 2018 also helped Kabul to advance its regional and international consensus-building agenda, as the conference declaration clearly supported peace and stability in Afghanistan. A trilateral meeting of religious scholars from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Indonesia in Bogor, Indonesia, also supported a peaceful settlement of the Afghan conflict. 

At a time when the Afghan government has been making efforts for peace and reconciliation on several fronts, a number of initiatives by civil society activists were also instigated. Though these actions are portrayed as being self motivated and purely the result of war fatigue, they can be linked to Kabul’s wide-ranging peacemaking efforts. President Ghani’s wholehearted extension of an olive branch and the refusal of the opposition to accept it, coupled with some of the bloodiest attacks in public places, prompted a public outcry demanding a peaceful settlement of the asymmetric war. Activists organized sit-ins, while a group of youths took it upon themselves to walk nearly 700 kilometers from Helmand province to the capital, Kabul, to show their desire for peace. 

As a result of Kabul’s meticulous pursuit of peace and reconciliation, pressure has been building on the Taliban to favor political process over a military offensive. The successful political and diplomatic interventions of the Afghan government for peace and reconciliation have garnered extraordinary support from civil-society movements, making it tough for the Taliban to deny Kabul’s overture in medium term. 

In addition, the desire for peace among the Taliban’s mid-level command, as demonstrated by the truce, has further compounded the situation for the Taliban leadership, making it difficult for them to shy away from it for long. The bold maneuvers of Kabul have made more gains than recent military action by the Taliban. Hence, the situation as it stands is a real reason for more hope than ever for a peaceful settlement of the Afghan conflict.

• Mushtaq Rahim is an independent political and security analyst, and expert on conflict management and peace building. He has been working in Afghanistan for the past 16 years on the promotion of good governance, with a specific focus on security-sector reforms and peace building. Twitter: @mushtaq_rahim