Ahead of peace talks in the Kazakh capital of Astana today and tomorrow, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced last Monday the partial withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria. Putin, however, left little doubt about his objective to protect Russia’s long-term strategic interest in Syria by adding that Moscow would maintain its two military bases in the country — the Khmeimim air base and the naval facility in Tartus.

Putin’s unannounced visit to Damascus, where he met Syrian President Bashar Assad, sought to signal that Moscow had achieved its strategic objective — which triggered its surprise military intervention in September 2015 — of ensuring the survival of the embattled Alawite regime, a long-term ally.

The timing of Putin’s announcement, of course, was not coincidental either as it had domestic implications, given that he just declared his intention of running for another four-year term. 

The Russian leader has thus demonstrated his ability to preserve Moscow’s strategic objectives in a region plagued with turmoil and instability, while at the same time signaling to voters at home that only he can be trusted to protect the motherland’s national interests. 

In the process, Moscow has also outmaneuvered Washington, Ankara and the Arab states, despite their repeated calls for the removal of Assad in light of his heinous crimes against the Syrian people. 

This, along with the fact that the first two UN envoys tasked with brokering a political settlement to the Syrian civil war had to eventually step aside given their inability to move Russia, as it used its UN Security Council veto to thwart any diplomatic resolutions against Assad. Towards that end, Moscow used the absence of a meaningful diplomatic process as a pretext for its military intervention on behalf of Assad as Syria’s civil war deteriorated. 

In light of these developments, it is unlikely that the two-day meeting in Astana will yield any different results, given the Assad regime’s unwillingness to compromise with the country’s increasingly weakened and fragmented opposition.

Washington’s immediate diplomatic priority should be to engage Moscow so that Russia can pressure Assad to stop the atrocities against his own people.

Sigurd Neubauer

Given that the Astana talks will focus on cementing a cease-fire deal brokered by Turkey, Russia and Iran in December of last year, it is highly unlikely that Washington will participate in what it considers to be a diplomatic charade. Thus, expect the Astana talks to be little more than political theater, but one that will once again come at the expense of the already suffering Syrian people.

Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi recently celebrated the defeat of Daesh during a military parade in Baghdad. It is expected that the next phase in the war against extremists will focus on guerrilla warfare. 

In order to counter that threat, it is expected that the Trump administration will seek to establish some sort of a permanent military presence in Iraq in order to ensure that the gains achieved against Daesh are secured. A US military presence in Iraq will at the same time roll back Tehran’s quest for regional hegemony as it has sought to establish a land bridge from Iran through to the Mediterranean.

In light of these challenges, US President Donald Trump’s objective to preserve a pragmatic relationship with Putin in order to prevent potential miscalculations from taking place in this fraught and unstable region is a necessary and welcomed development.

Russia could potentially play a stabilizing role in Syria as it maintains pragmatic relationships with Turkey, Iran and Israel, while at the same time holding leverage over the Assad regime. 

Recognizing these realities, Washington’s immediate diplomatic priority on the Syria file should be to engage Moscow so that Russia can pressure Assad to stop the atrocities against his own people.

• Sigurd Neubauer is a Middle East analyst and columnist based in Washington. Twitter: @SigiMideast