Tehran regime is just buying time

Iranians demonstrated continuously every night for a week before US President Donald Trump’s first round of sanctions were re-imposed on Aug. 7. 

Angry protesters chanted loudly that they were tired of systemic corruption and mismanagement, and demanded regime change. 

The soaring cost of living in Iran has nothing to do with the sanctions. Billions of dollars were released to the regime when the nuclear deal was signed in July 2015, but not a cent has been spent on public welfare. Business opportunities also became available for Tehran, but because of the regime’s behavior in the region, few companies trusted the political environment enough to do business with Iran. 

The Iranian people’s wealth has been squandered on regional conflicts in Syria and Yemen, and on supporting Shiite militias in Iraq and Lebanon. 

The public blames the government and no one else for the high rate of unemployment and business bankruptcies. 

The new sanctions are a reminder for Iranians that their lives have not improved in the past 40 years, with or without a deal with the United States.

Anyone who heard President Hassan Rouhani’s speech on state TV on Aug. 6 heard only more lies about government initiatives to confront sanctions, and the possibility of a referendum on the main issues facing the country.

Everyone knows that neither the Supreme Leader nor the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would ever allow the government to hold a referendum. Perhaps Rouhani made the offer to calm the nation, but the religious rulers are obviously just buying time to work out an escape from the internal and international deadlock in which they are caught.

Rouhani has not been shy in telling people the real pain will come when oil industry sanctions resume in November. Does he think Iranians will sit at home and starve because they are madly in love with the system and its ideology? 

The only reason people participated in the two last presidential elections was Rouhani’s promises to improve their living conditions and the nation’s international image. He has done neither. 

Europeans who still support the nuclear deal, and are working on a way to avoid US penalties on companies that work with Tehran, are aware of public opinion and the regime’s repression of ordinary people.

They want to preserve the deal because they fear a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. With their own security and regional interests in mind, they also want to avoid a confrontation between Iran and the US or Israel.

Europe cannot face another refugee crisis, nor higher prices for oil and gas, so perhaps they feel they are better off working with the regime in Tehran and accepting US sanctions rather than dealing with another catastrophe. 

Can the regime survive this new round of sanctions? In the past 40 years Iran has suffered greatly from sanctions; particularly tough measures were imposed when Barack Obama was US president, but the regime overcame the pressure. 

This time it may be different. People are not ready, and will not accept the hardship. Iran’s infrastructure has neither developed nor improved since the 1979 revolution, and there are high levels of corruption and mismanagement. The regime’s regional meddling is costly, when resources should be directed toward the daily needs of millions of Iranians. Tehran looks unlikely to alter its priorities in favor of its own people, and ordinary Iranians will have to decide what works best for them.

• Camelia Entekhabifard is an Iranian-American journalist, political commentator and author of Camelia: Save Yourself By Telling the Truth (Seven Stories Press, 2008). Twitter: @CameliaFard