Among other surprises, Punjab’s by-polls last month witnessed a poor electoral performance by the religio-political outfit Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP). The party bagged less than 5 percent votes in the by-election, which was in sharp contrast to its impressive electoral performance in the 2018 general election, where it emerged as Punjab’s third largest party with 1.9 million votes and the fifth largest in Pakistan with 2.2 million votes.

It bears mention that TLP’s performance in Karachi’s by-poll has shown an improvement in its vote share as compared to the 2018 general election. For instance, in the recently concluded NA 245 by-election, TLP retained its third place, while its vote count increased from 12.64 percent in 2018 to 16.3 percent. Likewise, in Karachi’s NA-240 by-election held in June, TLP was the runner-up.

Against this backdrop, it is vital to explore the factors which account for TLP’s defeat in Punjab and its likely impact on the next general election in Pakistan. In the 2018 general election, TLP was a major spoiler for the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN), depriving it of at least 13 national assembly seats. In April 2021, TLP’s leader Saad Hussain Rizvi was released due to a “secret deal” which also saw the release of its detained operatives, withdrawal of cases against the party and its removal from the terrorism watch list. The deal was widely speculated as a significant win for TLP and a political setback for Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI). However, the July 17 Punjab by-polls tell a different story.

Several factors account for TLP’s poor electoral performance in Punjab.

First, there is a leadership deficit in TLP following the death of its founder Khadim Hussain Rizvi who was a charismatic figure, firebrand orator and crowd puller. Though his son Saad Hussain Rizvi has proven to be a capable successor and has emerged as TLP’s undisputed leader, he lacks his father’s charisma and mass appeal. This was telling in Punjab’s by-election, where it became apparent that TLP’s vote-bank was based on Khadim Rizvi’s diehard followers and disciples.

Second, unlike the 2018 general election, which are alleged to be rigged, the July 17 by-elections in Punjab were held in a relatively free and fair atmosphere, allowing parties like the PML-N to regain some ground, despite losing massively to its political arch-rival, PTI. As mainstream political parties regained their footing, the vote-bank of political outfits like TLP shrunk accordingly.

Third, single-issue parties like TLP, which focus on faith-based narratives, thrive in an ideologically conducive context when religious sentiments of the masses are charged. In heterogeneous societies like Pakistan with a fluid political environment, the political context can evolve rather quickly with changing circumstances. Since its formation, TLP has championed the cause of ‘blasphemy activism’ in Pakistan. Likewise, TLP’s core vote-bank is sectarian and votes along the lines of narrow identity politics. Political groups like TLP perform exceptionally when identity issues dominate politics. However, at this juncture, none of the issues that TLP champions had traction among the electorate.

In the current political scenario, the issues shaping voters’ behaviours are related to rising inflation, growing energy prices and civil-military relations. TLP neither has any answers to these complex issues nor has it provided the political rhetoric of fixing them.

Abdul Basit

In the 2018 election, TLP did well due to the controversy over PML-N’s proposed electoral reforms, which were portrayed as a move to allegedly weaken Pakistan’s anti-blasphemy laws. This controversy created a massive dent in the PML-N’s vote-bank in Punjab, allowing TLP to emerge as a significant player in Punjab’s religio-political landscape. However, in the current political scenario, the issues shaping voters’ behaviours are related to rising inflation, growing energy prices, the alleged US-sponsored plot to oust PTI in a parliamentary vote of no-confidence and civil-military relations. TLP neither has any answers to these complex issues nor has it provided the political rhetoric of fixing them if it was voted into power. Therefore, TLP’s irrelevance in Punjab’s by-poll is not entirely unexpected.

Fourth, PTI has encroached into TLP’s political space by exploiting religious narratives. Even well-established religio-political parties like Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazal (JUI-F) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) have struggled against PTI.

PTI’s clever and opportunistic use of religious narratives has made it challenging for TLP to hold its ground in Punjab. For instance, PTI has showcased the adoption of Pakistan's co-proposed resolution emphasizing the respect for “sacred religious symbols” by the United Nations General Assembly in 2020 as the party’s contribution to fighting Islamophobia and blasphemy. The blend of Khan’s populist politics tapping into anti-American public sentiments coupled with the use of religious narrative has dented TLP’s political support base in Punjab.

However, TLP has done well in Karachi’s by-election because of the port city's fragmented political landscape, where identity politics still matters. Furthermore, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)’s split into Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP), MQM-Pakistan and MQM-London factions has created a huge political vacuum that has created enough space for TLP to do well electorally.

Despite TLP’s poor electoral performance in the Punjab by-polls, it will be a mistake to write it off as a major spoiler for mainstream political parties in Punjab, which will be the main battleground in the next general election. The next general election in Punjab will likely be a closely contested two-way fight between PTI and the PML-N. In closely contested national polls, small margins make a significant impact. Hence, even if TLP improves marginally from its poor electoral performance in Punjab by-polls, it will significantly impact the outcome of Pakistan’s next general election.

- The author is a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore. Twitter @basitresearcher.