The alliance against Tehran on three fronts

It has become clear that the war waged by Iran is directed against Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies, not against the US or Israel. Iran has attacked the Kingdom with more than 1,000 drones since last February, in addition to ballistic missiles that have targeted civilian and military facilities. The Iranians have widened the war through the territories of two countries, Iraq and Yemen, in a bid to surround Saudi Arabia.

Riyadh, in contrast, surprised Tehran by establishing a bloc uniting three countries bordering Iran. Today, the alliance tips the balance of power against Iran. Turkiye and Pakistan have become rival states rather than onlookers: a force with strategic depth, greater military capabilities, 400 million people — four times that of Iran — and more than 1,400 km of land borders overlooking Iran.

Internationally, Turkiye is a member of the western NATO alliance, while Pakistan is a nuclear power militarily close to China. This Saudi move will affect conflict management and negotiations, and gradually lead to Iran losing most of the trump cards it has enjoyed in its war with the US.

Last month, Iran escalated its war on northern and southern Saudi Arabia by opening two fronts from inside Iraq and Yemen. This dangerous development coincided with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signing the Makkah Agreement, and the announcement of the tripartite military alliance with Turkiye and Pakistan, which had been in the making since last year.

This is the second alliance built and announced by Saudi Arabia within a week, following the establishment of an international naval military bloc led by Riyadh.

The importance of the alliance with Turkiye and Pakistan rests on three fronts: deterring Iran, the oil market, and Arab and Islamic public opinion.

The first front is Iran itself. Tehran’s escalating military activity reveals its intentions to expand the scope of the conflict and perhaps create a new geographical reality in the Gulf imposed by force. The Riyadh-Ankara-Islamabad alliance aims to create a balance that deters Iran from thinking about advancing toward the Gulf region, as well as targeting Jordan, Syria, and Yemen. Expanding the scope of the war will cost Iran’s leadership dearly.

Tehran’s strategy in its confrontation with the US was based on holding oil hostage. It made blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and targeting producing countries, its winning card in pressuring a superpower it cannot face on equal military terms. The new Saudi axis deprives Iran of this tactic.

The tripartite alliance enjoys significant international support, given that most governments preferred to remain neutral in the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. Many countries, including those that consider confronting Iran justified, found that the war was launched without sufficient legal and diplomatic preparation.

International backing for the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani tripartite axis can be sensed from the broad support for the multinational naval alliance announced by Saudi Arabia last week, with 43 governments taking part in its meeting at the Ministry of Defense in Riyadh. This naval initiative is defensive, designed to counter Iranian aggression, and was prepared politically and legally.

The front built to confront Iran is not for Saudi Arabia alone but also includes the Gulf region and the eastern Arab world. The objective is to stop Iran, which lost most of its centers of influence following the destruction of Hezbollah and the downfall of its ally, the Assad regime, and subsequently decided to destabilize the region and create a new geopolitical reality enabling it to threaten Arab states. The features of Iran’s plan have become clear since the resumption of the war late last February; its attacks have focused on the Kingdom, the rest of the Gulf states, and Jordan rather than its two adversaries in the conflict, the US and Israel.

There is also the oil front defended by the alliance, a battle watched by the entire world. Iran is closing the Strait of Hormuz and Bab Al-Mandab, targeting Gulf production and export facilities, and seeking to bring the world to its knees on Iranian terms. Oil markets reacted swiftly to the announcement of the new tripartite alliance, welcoming the news with a drop in oil prices on the global market.

The third front is the struggle over public opinion — over the hearts and minds of around 300 million Arabs and more than a billion Muslims worldwide. They were watching a war marketed to them as US-Israeli aggression against a peaceful Muslim state. Because the war was not resolved early on, Iran focused on justifying its aggression and portraying its attacks on its neighbors as though they were in the US-Israeli camp.

In facing the alliance, it will be difficult for the Iranian propaganda machine and its platforms to convince 1.5 billion people of its false narrative that Pakistan, Turkiye, and Saudi Arabia are nations opposing Arabs and Muslims. Tehran’s leadership hiding underground will lose the propaganda war. We will see Tehran’s aggressive behavior change during the coming days.

• Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a Saudi journalist and intellectual. He is the former general manager of Al-Arabiya news channel and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, where this article was originally published.

X: @aalrashed