The hard right turn in ‘socialist’ France

For long, France has been seen as among the most socialist states in the Western world and the anchor of socialism in the EU, with its relatively generous social security rules as well as the infamous unions and their numerous strikes and protests that have often brought the country to a grinding halt.

However, as France prepares to vote for its next president in under two months, there is not a single socialist or left-wing candidate in the electoral race, which has dramatically shifted to the right and even hard right, as two far-right candidates figure in the top five contenders for the position currently held by Emmanuel Macron, while just one candidate from the far left makes it anywhere near a double-digit score in support.

A recent poll put Macron comfortably ahead in the race, even though he is yet to formally announce his candidature. In a poll published on Jan. 28, Macron had 24 percent support, followed at 18 percent by Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right Rassemblement Nationale, as she has rechristened the Front Nationale, founded by her father.

Next in line is center-right candidate Valerie Pecresse, who with 16 percent support, has managed to revive a moribund and dispirited Republican Party into life and vigor, and at least emerge as a credible challenger in the presidential race.

Eric Zemmour, a vitriolic far-right writer, is next in the list with 12.5 percent support and it is only after Zemmour that the first name from the left wing enters the race. Jean-Luc Melenchon, the leader of the extreme-left La France Insoumise, has 10 percent support, mainly thanks to a consolidated block of voters that have backed him for more than a decade now. It is much after Melenchon that several left-wing candidates make their appearance, with most of them struggling to stay above the 5 percent mark in terms of support.

The demise of the French Socialist Party could not have come at a worse moment

Ranvir S. Nayar

Though socialists or left-wingers may not be anywhere on the scene as contenders, paradoxically, many of the issues raised by socialists or greens figure among the top concerns of French voters in this election. For instance, the top concern is of course health, coming on the back of a pandemic that ravaged even the French health care system and brought it to breaking point on numerous occasions in the past two years.

The other main worries of the French almost read like a socialist wish list or poll manifesto: Social security, purchasing power, pensions, education, employment, inequality, the environment and so on. The only issues of the right or the far right are terrorism, immigration and French identity.

So, why are the French voters buying into the candidates least likely to address their concerns? This is mainly because the political landscape in France changed dramatically in 2017 when Macron was elected. During the campaign, presenting himself as a completely atypical politician, Macron had managed to attract talent from both parties that had dominated French politics since the end of the Second World War — the Socialists and the Republicans, with the far-right Front Nationale being the third relevant player in elections.

Macron’s early appeal led to a near-total decimation of both key parties, which continued to drift directionless over the next few years, mainly due to the absence of one towering leader. Instead, both the parties had almost a dozen candidates fighting for the mantle, with none having any kind of the national or political charisma needed to win elections.

The center-right Republicans seem to have gotten their act together finally, as last year, Valerie Pecresse won the party’s primary for the presidential elections. Since her elections, Pecresse has steadily increased her appeal and is now in third place with a relatively decent 16 percent share in opinion polls.

However, the center left continues to be adrift, splintered, leaderless and directionless as almost half a dozen candidates try to claim the leadership, even though their support base at the national level ensures that none of them are likely to finish even in the top five in the elections.

Supporters of the left are exasperated by this scenario and several reports suggest that left-wing supporters are desperate to see their leadership unify and present a serious challenge in the elections. However, their voices do not seem to have reached the squabbling leaders.

In many ways, it is too late. With less than eight weeks left before the first round takes place on April 10, even if by some miracle the parties on the left, especially the Socialists, managed to find one candidate to support and present as the unified left candidate, there is just too little time left for the candidate to conjure a program that would appeal to the various other pretenders to the throne and present a unified manifesto that would get them back into the game. Thus, chances are that 2022 will see the first presidential election in eight decades, if not longer, where the Socialists are not only absent from the list of main contenders but will struggle to feature significantly in the also-ran category.

That is indeed a sad commentary on a country that has long prided itself, with some justification, as the flag bearer of an equitable and accommodating society, with a robust social security net for the underprivileged.

The demise of the French Socialist Party could not have come at a worse moment. The poor and the underprivileged, not only in France, but in countries around the world, are struggling to emerge from a pandemic that has taken a particularly bad toll on them, leading to a spike in inequality after the income of the wealthiest quintile in the world rose sharply during the pandemic, while the poor lost significantly.