The irresistible rise and rise of Mike Pence

Mike Pence visits Ohio on Tuesday on a swing-state tour to build support for the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade treaty. In an administration dominated by the polarizing persona of Donald Trump, Pence has become a key influence, building on the legacy of three predecessors who made the vice-presidency more substantive.

In the past few weeks Pence has played a prominent role in a range of Trump initiatives, including visits to the US southern border to focus on immigration policy and his current trips around the country to promote USMCA, the administration’s proposed replacement for the North America Free Trade Agreement.

Pence has also made several key international trips. In most cases, the former governor of Indiana, who is not without controversy himself, has reassured allies and defused Trump’s sometimes raucous rhetoric.

Take Pence’s tour of South America last June. While Venezuela was not on the itinerary, its political crisis hung over the trip following Trump’s remarks that he was considering “military options” there, an unfortunate comment given long memories on the continent of US interventionism.

Not only did Pence calm concerns about the US military position, he also emphasized the US commitment to economic and political partnerships throughout the hemisphere, boosting an emerging coalition of countries seeking to isolate Venezuela.

To be sure, Pence does not (yet at least) enjoy the influence of the most powerful holders of his office. Dick Cheney, for instance was a predominant voice in many of George W. Bush’s big decisions, including the US-led invasion of Iraq, and is widely viewed as the most influential vice-president.

Pence’s power may therefore only grow in a second term of office, especially if Trump’s health deteriorates or he loses interest in the job. Moreover, there is a significant chance Pence could eventually get the top job himself, turbocharging his domestic and international influence.

Andrew Hammond

Nevertheless, the responsibility Pence already has fits a pattern whereby the last three incumbents of his job — Joe Biden, Cheney, and Al Gore — all enjoyed sizeable influence compared with some predecessors. Gore, for instance, was a key influence in the Clinton administration, from climate change and environmental policy to promoting fiscal discipline.

While this trend toward greater vice-presidential influence therefore dates back some time, one new factor in this administration is the international disdain with which Trump is widely regarded by key figures in foreign capitals, who welcome an interlocutor they perceive as more reassuring. For example, Pence’s July 2017 trip to Eastern Europe took place in the context of Trump’s uncertain commitment to NATO, and what is widely seen as an inexplicable bromance with Vladimir Putin. Pence visited US and Georgian troops taking part in a NATO-related exercise that also featured soldiers from the UK, Germany, Ukraine, Armenia and Slovenia. He also participated in the Adriatic Charter Summit in Montenegro, with leaders from across the Western Balkans.

In international economic policy, Pence has calmed tensions fostered by Trump’s protectionist language. By leading a new US-Japan Economic Dialogue he contributed to stronger US-Japan ties after Tokyo was initially shaken by the abrupt US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Trump has indicated that Pence “100 percent” will be his 2020 running mate, and it appears likely his influence in the administration will therefore only grow. One relevant factor is that Trump is the oldest person to win the US presidency. This elevates the possibility that, especially in a second term, Pence may also be required to assume the presidency upon the incumbent’s unanticipated death or physical incapacity. At 60, he is a significantly younger running mate who, while broadly criticized by Democrats, is perceived to be capable enough of assuming the top job should that be necessary.

Even if Trump survives the full duration of his presidency, all is not lost for Pence; the vice-presidency has become perhaps the single best transitional office to the top job in recent decades, and it is likely that Pence could run for the Oval Office himself in the future, in 2024 and/or 2028.

Since 1960, four sitting vice-presidents (Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Walter Mondale in 1984, and Gore in 2000) won their partys’ presidential nomination, but then lost the election. Two vice-presidents have been elected president (Nixon in 1968 and George H.W. Bush in 1988), and Biden could become the third in 2020.