There is no question that the results of the Iran nuclear deal in 2015 have been disappointing. Hopes that the agreement would induce Iran to act more responsibly in the region were dashed by its increased belligerence. Hardliners in Tehran interpreted the deal as a quid pro quo: In exchange for taming Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it would be given a free hand in the region. 

Consequently, we saw after the deal a dramatic expansion in Iran’s ballistic missile program, which had slowed down during negotiations. Similarly, the deal emboldened Iran as it dangerously escalated its meddling in Syria, Yemen and elsewhere. In GCC countries, Iran’s interference in internal affairs became more brazen. Iranian agents stormed prisons in Kuwait and Bahrain to free incarcerated pro-Iranian terrorists. In Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, attacks by Iran-affiliated groups against police, government offices and ordinary citizens became more frequent. Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran were attacked and burned down. In sum, Iran has returned to being a rogue state.

These unintended consequences of the Iran deal led to a reassessment of its value. It has become obvious that new thinking is urgently required. The US was the most disillusioned, as frequent and bold statements by President Donald Trump have demonstrated; he called the deal “the worst ever.” Reports from Washington indicate that the president is considering de-certification of Iran’s compliance with the agreement, which would require Congress to decide whether to re-introduce sanctions. 

In addition, Trump is expected to announce new measures against Iran, including additional targeted sanctions, the designation of the Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization and the adoption of a tougher stand on Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. 

While the US president and his administration are considering their next steps, the French President Emmanuel Macron has put forward his own vision for how to deal with Iran. He suggests that the nuclear deal should remain, but he proposes new negotiations to deal with its shortcomings. Macron stressed that the deal as it stood was not enough, given that Tehran had increased its destabilizing activities in the region and pressed ahead with ballistic missile tests.

France was one of the toughest negotiators during the talks between the P5+1 (China, Germany, Russia, UK, US and the EU) and Iran. While supporting the deal, Macron made his misgivings clear last month: “Is this agreement enough? No, it is not, given the evolution of the regional situation and increasing pressure that Iran is exerting on the region, and given increased activity by Iran on the ballistic level since the accord. Let’s be honest, tensions are on the rise, look at the activities of Hezbollah and Iran’s pressure on Syria. We need a clear framework to be able to reassure regional countries and the United States.”

There is global consensus that the agreement with Iran is inadequate, and the French president knows how to fix it — curb Tehran’s ballistic missile program and its destabilizing role in the region.

Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

Macron said he wanted to discuss possible sanctions over Iran’s ballistic missile program, and the role of Iran in the region. He also called for negotiations to resume immediately on what happens after the limitations in the accord are gradually lifted after 2025.

Macron’s position is nuanced. While he wants the nuclear deal to remain, he obviously wants it to be strengthened, something that he shares with Washington. The US wants, at a minimum, to bolster the verification process by explicitly allowing invasive inspections of all sites, including military sites. France wants to discuss extending the deal to include measures for the longer term, after 2025. Both France and the US agree that Iran’s destabilizing activities have to be curbed and that its missile program has to come under greater scrutiny.

As the momentum increases for a reassessment of the nuclear deal, it is clear that there is a consensus that Iran should not be under any illusion that the deal is a license for its hardliners to continue to destabilize the region through proxy militias and terrorist organizations. Imposing sanctions on the Revolutionary Guards would be an effective first step, as it is the main party responsible for exporting terrorism and instability throughout the region and beyond. Imposing tougher sanctions on Hezbollah, the Houthis and other Iranian proxies would be an important second step.

The UN Security Council should also strengthen the inspection regime governing Iran’s ballistic missile program. Iran claims to have tested recently a ballistic missile with a 2,000km radius, a threat to its neighbors and beyond. Almost all recent tested missiles are capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, in defiance of Security Council resolutions on this program.

• The author is a columnist for Arab News. He can be reached by email: [email protected]. Twitter: @abuhamad1