On Dec. 7 and 8, I participated in debates on the Al Arabiya network regarding leaked videos featuring former Syrian President Bashar Assad and his deceased media adviser Luna Al-Shibl, which were broadcast by Al Arabiya and Al Hadath. The footage documented exchanges between Assad and Al-Shibl during field tours believed to have taken place in 2018.

My analysis, which I partially shared on the “Hour of Dialogue” program, emphasized that the videos’ most significant message should resonate with Assad’s supporters — whether in Syria, Lebanon or Iraq, especially those aligned with the so-called Axis of Resistance. The recordings expose Assad as a leader indifferent to his people and dismissive of his allies, revealing the mentality that governed Syria for decades and plunged the country into prolonged civil war with armed groups, both domestic and foreign.

This climate provided fertile ground for extremist organizations like Al-Qaeda and Daesh to flourish, though Assad could have avoided these catastrophic consequences through genuine reforms that improved living standards and fulfilled Syrian aspirations for prosperity and stability.

These videos arriving a year after Assad’s regime fell doubled their political weight and guaranteed a substantial viewership. They facilitate comprehension of events and explain why such a swift disintegration transpired within mere days.

The recordings expose Assad as a leader indifferent to his people and dismissive of his allies

Hassan Al-Mustafa

The recordings offer a revealing look at how Assad’s inner circle regarded both their allies and their base of support. During a segment showing Assad maneuvering through the vicinity of Ghouta, Al-Shibl comments: “The Syrian army has developed its skills and is now reviewing them … Hezbollah used to take pride in its urban fighting abilities, but we ultimately heard nothing from them.”

This stands as one of the most revealing moments in the leaked videos, demanding serious reflection from Hezbollah’s Lebanese constituency. They must come to terms with the years-long commitment of thousands of young Lebanese Shiites to Syria’s defense of Assad, justified through religious rhetoric — a campaign that profoundly eroded both Hezbollah’s operational capacity and its grassroots legitimacy.

Such a reckoning becomes even more urgent given last year’s “solidarity war,” initiated by the late Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in support of Gaza, which yielded no meaningful gains. Thousands of homes across southern Lebanon, the Bekaa and southern Beirut now stand in ruins, even as Israel maintains its pattern of daily incursions and violations of Lebanese sovereignty.

This situation prompts a fundamental question: Was all the bloodshed and sacrifice expended for nothing, in defense of a Syrian regime that neither honored its own people nor refrained from mocking its most dedicated allies?

The divide between the Assad regime’s public pronouncements designed for its base and its private statements represents a critical perspective for understanding these leaks’ likely resonance among Axis of Resistance supporters — despite some dismissing the recordings as doctored, thereby avoiding uncomfortable questions.

The regime fell because it was built on a foundation of complete alienation between ruler and ruled

Hassan Al-Mustafa

Those who believed in the narrative of a powerful alliance and Hezbollah’s crucial role in standing against enemies suddenly encountered recordings depicting the regime’s head ridiculing them and using them as throwaway pawns.

The timing of Al Arabiya’s release of these recordings is deeply significant, marking the first anniversary of the Assad regime's downfall — a pivotal moment as Syria seeks to forge a new political identity, from grassroots governance to fundamental questions about the state’s structure, orientation, purpose and ties with Arab states in the region.

For those supporting Syria’s emerging leadership, the leaks proved what they had long believed: that Assad never deserved to rule Syria. Yet the critical message in these videos goes deeper — the regime did not fall simply because of military defeats, but because it was built on a foundation of complete alienation between ruler and ruled.

Moving forward, Syria’s transitional government must establish its authority differently: through genuine engagement with all sectors of society, listening to their needs and fears, respecting diverse forms of patriotism and creating space for real political participation rooted in citizenship, the rule of law and fairness. The state needs to reassert its sole right to bear arms and address radicalism through coordinated legal, educational and developmental strategies — not the security apparatus and systematic marginalization that defined the old regime for decades.

Assad remained closed to guidance provided to him, including from associates, and he failed to capitalize on Arab reconciliation efforts or Syria’s return to the Arab League. He stayed true to his course, viewing himself as the conqueror before whom all bowed, feeding his ego while remaining blind to the suffering of the Syrian people. These epic failures of judgment have left him in exile today, as Syrians work to forge a safe and prosperous nation with strong Arab ties, leaving behind a past drenched in agony and carnage.

  • Hassan Al-Mustafa is a Saudi writer and researcher interested in Islamic movements, the development of religious discourse, and the relationship between Gulf Cooperation Council states and Iran. X: @Halmustafa